Browns vs Bills Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Detroit Lock City

In snowy Buffalo, in Detroit, or on Jupiter, it doesn’t matter where the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns play in Week 11, it’s likely going to go the way of the Bills. It was decided Thursday that these teams would have their game moved from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. to Ford Field in Detroit because of the copious amounts of lake-effect snow training in from Lake Erie.

Now, the Bills have a chance in the next two weekends to equal the Detroit Lions for the most wins at Ford Field this season, as it plays this weekend against the hapless Browns, and Thursday on Thanksgiving against the equally-sad Lions.

Who will win this nomad battle between Lake Erie combatants? We’ll discuss in our NFL picks and predictions for Browns vs. Lions on Sunday, November 20.

Browns vs Bills best odds

Browns vs Bills picks and predictions

Sports and meteorology do go together sometimes. Snowmageddon fans got a glimpse of what could have been in Mount Pleasant, Mich. this week when Western Michigan and Central Michigan squared off in a snowy college football game. I hope you DVR’d that undercard snow show, because this week’s most promising must-see snow TV main event is no more.

Cleveland fans were irked because the Browns rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (158.8), and statistically, it’s the only area it has a slight edge over Buffalo, which ranks No. 9 in the NFL with 129.9 rushing yards per contest. The thinking, from delusional Browns fans, was that Cleveland would ride a combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, dashing through the snow, giving the Browns their only chance at a victory.

Now, the beleaguered Browns defense, which just lost CB Greg Newsome II to concussion in practice Friday, has to face QB Josh Allen and the Bills offense in controlled conditions indoors. 

Defensive coordinator Joe Woods, who is giving Art Modell a run for the most hated football guy in Browns history, has seen his defense allow 26.4 PPG, second-most in the NFL. Search "Fire Joe Woods" on Twitter, and it might be the best bet of the week that you’ll hit the Over on the amount of results. Truth be told, I may or may not be responsible for a few myself.

The Browns have allowed 23 or more points in seven of nine games overall this season, while yielding 39 points last time out in Miami in perfectly sunny conditions at Hard Rock Stadium. And that was after two weeks of preparation following a bye! Heaven help anyone even considering an Under bet still, as that ship sailed like a Put-in-Bay ferry from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

To be fair, Cleveland did lose its first three games by a combined six points, and it was competitive early on. But it is just 2-3 ATS across the past five games, and after getting boat-raced in Miami, it must face an angry Buffalo team which had an epic meltdown in the fourth quarter and overtime at home against the Minnesota Vikings in a battle of four-time Super Bowl losers last week. Allen and the Bills come in angrier than someone getting cut off at the Anchor Bar. This is going to be a beatdown, and it’s not going to be terribly close.

My best bet: Bills -7.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

Browns vs Bills spread analysis

The last three road games for the Browns have resulted in a pair of 23-20 losses, and a 39-17 beatdown. Cleveland is 1-2 ATS during the span, allowing 28.3 ppg. The Browns offense, for all of its amazing rushing ability, still has managed 20 or fewer points in three of the past four games. And this Cleveland team is just 2-4 ATS in six games overall.

Most folks point to the 11-game suspension of QB Deshaun Watson, and what could have been this season for the Browns, but one man doesn’t make the team, especially one who hasn’t been there before. The coaching has been questionable, the defense is horrible despite one of the top players in the league in Myles Garrett, and the only things plentiful have been points allowed and excuses.

The Bills are an ornery bunch, coming in on a two-game losing streak, and three-game non-cover skid. And laying seven and a hook on a team with those kind of numbers looks risky on the surface. But facing the inept Cleveland defense is the elixir to cure Buffalo’s ills, snapping it back on the rail for this two-game, five-day stretch in Motown.

Buffalo has just one game indoors so far this season, rolling to a 31-10 road win against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. Cleveland was indoors once in Week 4 at Atlanta, falling 23-20 in a non-cover.

Browns vs Bills Over/Under analysis

These are two powerful offenses taking the field in Detroit, something even Lions fans will want to tune in to see. It’s rare that NFL-caliber offenses are on the home sideline at Ford Field.

The Over is on a 3-1-1 run for the Browns, while going 6-2-1 in nine games overall. Cleveland can score, especially when the run game is going well, and the defense can’t stop anybody.

For Buffalo, it’s not as simple. Yes, it saw 63 combined points in last week’s OT loss to Minnesota, but that was the first Over result in seven games dating back to a 41-7 spanking of the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.

The offense will show out here for the Bills. Stefon Diggs on the fast track with Allen and no wind? Gabe Davis? Even Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox with their soft hands? It’s going to be a field day against the banged-up and beleaguered Browns D. Buffalo is No. 1 in total yards per game (424.1), and hanging a 500-burger on the Cleveland D, in terms of yardage, is certainly attainable.

Browns vs Bills betting trend to know

The Browns are 15-34-2 ATS in the past 51 games against a team with a winning overall record Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Bills.

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