The Denver Broncos try to keep their improbable season on track when they host the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football in Week 13.
Denver brings a two-game winning run into tonight's contest and if it wants to keep pushing toward the playoffs, my Browns vs. Broncos predictions believe Bo Nix's legs will be imperative in the team's success.
I size up the spread, total, and play props for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for the Browns at Broncos on Monday, December 2.
Browns vs Broncos MNF prediction
Who will win Browns vs Broncos?
This spread has climbed as high as Denver -6, which has puffed the moneyline price on the home team to -270. Those odds carry an implied win probability of 73%. Since 1985, 6-point home favorites have won at just a 65% clip.
This is the second biggest spread for Denver all season, behind -13 versus Carolina, but do the Broncos deserve this much credit? They’re coming off one-side wins over Las Vegas and Atlanta – two defenses that pale in comparison to what Cleveland can put out there.
The Broncos’ stop unit will be the difference maker on Monday night and while Denver may not be up to topping this lofty spread, it should come away with a nail-biting victory in front of the Mile High faithful.
My best bet
Pick: Bo Nix Over 18.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Denver Broncos’ rookie QB Bo Nix is getting more and more comfortable in the pocket, with his passing numbers going up and his rushing numbers coming down.
After relying on his legs a lot in the opening half of the schedule, Nix has rushed for more than five yards only once in the past five games, including just five yards on the ground in each of the wins over Las Vegas and Atlanta.
Granted, those two defenses are among the more passive pass rushes in the NFL, and the Broncos’ pass protection has been solid, giving up a pressure rate of only 18% and earning the top spot in the pass block win rate ratings at ESPN.
The Cleveland Browns will test the integrity of the offensive line in Week 13. It ranks third in pressure rate per dropback, sixth in blitz percentages, and 10th in total sacks with 32. It entered Week 13 ranked fourth in pass rush win rate at ESPN.
Regardless of his improved presence in the pocket, Nix is going to feel the heat from the Browns and will have to tuck and run if he wants to keep clean.
We’ve seen him break off significant gains on the ground against other QB-killing defenses, including efforts of 25, 47, and 61 rushing yards facing the likes of Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and the L.A. Chargers. Cleveland has allowed the 10th most rushing yards to quarterbacks as well as the fifth most carries to the position this year.
Almost all player projections for Nix call for 20 or more rushing yards versus the Browns, with some models as high as 29 yards. My number sits just north of 25 yards on the ground, which is more than enough to get Over his current rushing yard prop of 18.5 yards Over/Under.
Browns vs Broncos MNF same-game parlay
Bo Nix 25+ Rushing Yards
Bo Nix Touchdown Anytime
Devaughn Vele 40+ Receiving Yards
Nix will have to run for his life a few times against this vaunted Browns pass rush, with many projections past 25 rushing yards.
One of those carries could be a QB keeper, as Nix has found the end zone four times as a runner this season.
Devaughn Vele has become a popular target for Nix in the past two games, totaling 10 catches on 14 targets for a collective 146 yards receiving.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Browns vs Broncos odds
Browns vs Broncos live odds
Browns vs Broncos opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +4.5 | Denver -4.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland +200 | Denver -270
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Browns vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
• The Broncos opened as short as -4.5 and took money throughout the week, pushing this spread as high as -6 at some books. As of this writing, most shops are dealing Broncos -5.5. According to Covers Consensus, 70% of spread picks are laying the points with the home team.
• As for the total, it opened at 46.5 points and dropped to as low as 43.5 O/U before buyback brought it up to 44.5 points. Covers Consensus shows 57% of picks on the Over for Monday Night Football.
Browns vs Broncos betting trend to know
Denver is 8-1 SU as a home favorite of -5.5 or higher since 2018, but just 4-5 ATS in those games as big home chalk. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Broncos.
How to watch Browns vs Broncos game info
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 12-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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