Browns vs Eagles Preseason Picks and Predictions: Philly's Depth Shines Through

The second week of the preseason kicks off Thursday night as the Cleveland Browns visit Lincoln Financial Field as 3.5-point road dogs vs. the Philadelphia Eagles with a total of 37.5. 

With sharp money moving the Eagles' spread across the -3 to -3.5, is there still room to back the Eagles at home despite the regular starters likely watching from the sidelines?

Find out in my NFL preseason best bets for Browns vs. Eagles on Thursday, August 17.

Browns vs Eagles odds

Browns vs Eagles predictions

Sharp betting syndicates released the Eagles -2.5 and moved that line through the 3 to -3.5. That was on the backs of the Eagles having the much better defense and being much deeper on the defensive line. 

They were also higher on the Philadelphia quarterback rotation of Marcus Mariota, rookie Tanner McKee, and former Saints backup Ian Book vs. Cleveland's projected rotation of Joshua Dobbs, Kellen Mond, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Neither team is projected to play any key starters and if we do see Deshaun Watson and the ones, it will likely be for a single series as both these teams got plenty of reps vs. each other in joint practices this week. 

The Eagles defense dominated these practices and is one of the deeper units in all of football — especially on the line and in the secondary. There has been a lot written that Cleveland playing its third preseason game compared to Philadelphia’s second is an edge for the visitors but that’s subjective at best.

Another hot talking point is the skill set of Thompson-Robinson, who has flashed big-play abilities. However, he has yet to see any first-half snaps. The backup QB job is also wide open meaning Dobbs and Mond could see extended work in the third warm-up game. 

Expect Mariota to play the first half as that was the blueprint from Nick Sirianni last year with Gardner Minshew. Mariota is a strong preseason QB to back, especially with some solid RBs who can be trusted with the ball, including Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift. Despite losing 20-19 vs. the Ravens last week, the Eagles offense ran 73 plays and dominated the time of possession 35:22 to 24:38. 

If I can get a first-half line of -3 or better on the Eagles, that’s where my first choice would be as there is a lot more to like about Mariota than Dobbs or Mond. The DTR hype might be loud considering his opponents and especially against this deep Philly defensive roster. With Cleveland kicker Cam York also struggling (0-for-2 on field goals in the preseason) I’m laying the points Thursday night with the limited markets.   

My best bet: Eagles -3.5 (-102 at Pinnacle)

Browns vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis

It doesn’t look like we will see any starting quarterbacks or even skill position players Thursday night. Sirianni barely played any starters in the 2022 preseason and bettors should expect the same. On the other side, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski didn’t play his key starters until the final game of the preseason a year ago but did give his ones a single series last week. 

Knowing that, it’s looking like we will see plenty of Dobbs, Mond, and Thompson-Robinson for the Browns as the backup QB job is wide open in Cleveland. That might sound like a good thing for bettors as well as this being the Browns’ third preseason game, but this a deep Philadelphia defense. And although DTR has been hyped up, he’s had the benefit of facing the Jets and the Commanders’ threes and fours. 

Mond was on mop-up duty in the 17-15 Cleveland loss to Washington while DTR did his damage vs. the reserves in the second half. Now, with receivers Elijah Moore and Marquise Goodwin out as well as backup RB Jerome Ford, this questionable offense will have to move the ball vs. one of the deepest defenses in football and a unit that bullied them in practice this week. The Eagles are much more talented on the defensive line and in pass coverage. 

Betting syndicates took notice of this earlier in the week and hit the Eagles -2.5 — sending it to as high as -4 in some places. The Eagles’ QB rotation of Mariota, McKee, and Book might not jump out at bettors as a solid group, but Mariota was a starter last year, McKee is a 2023 sixth-round pick who threw for 148 yards on 10 completions vs. the Ravens last week, and Book posted decent preseason numbers last year with the Saints and might not see much action after throwing just four passes last week. 

Both coaches played their backups for the first half in last year’s preseason matchup and if it’s Mariota vs. Dobbs, I am happy to side with the sharps who drove this ML from PHI -2.5 to -4.

If you’re backing the Eagles, keep an eye on rookie safety Sydney Brown, who had nine tackles in just 42 snaps last week and is getting time with the ones while safety Reed Blankenship picked off Watson three times over two games in joint practices this week. 

The total opened at 37.5 and hit as high as 39 before being bet back down to 37.5. It will be a dry night with 80-degree temperatures. The wind is projected to be around 10 mph going north and south through Lincoln Financial Field.

The one thing that has me leaning on the Over here is the pace of play both clubs have shown in a small sample size during warm-ups. Cleveland is averaging 68 plays per game while the Eagles got off 72 plays in their opener. However, the Eagles defense has me off this Over and I really don’t want to trust Mond in the fourth quarter or kicker Cam York, who is 0-for-2 with field goals in the preseason (49 yards and 46 yards).

Browns vs Eagles betting trend to know

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