Editor's note: this preview was written before news broke Saturday night that Cleveland WRs Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and KhaDarel Hodge would all miss today's game due to close-contact with COVID-19.
Christmas came early for the New York Jets last week, picking up their first win against the Rams as +1,000 underdogs. Gang Green will look to keep things rolling — and earn a worse draft spot — as they welcome the Cleveland Browns to the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon.
After beating the other New York team on Sunday night, the 10-4 Browns have a 94 percent chance to make the postseason thanks to a stretch of five wins over their last six games.
NFL odds have the visiting Browns as 9.5-point favorites, which marks the 10th straight week the Jets have been an underdog of a TD or more. The total sits right on the key number of 47.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Browns vs Jets on Sunday, December 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Betting Preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-30s at kick off with partly cloudy skies and a 5 mph wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Browns: Wyatt Teller G (Out), Chris Hubbard G (Out), Odell Beckham Jr. WR (Out), Jedrick Wills Jr. T (Out), Jarvis Landry WR (Out), Rashard Higgins WR (Out), Donovan Peoples-Jones WR (Out), KhaDarel Hodge WR (Out).
Jets: Quinnen Williams DL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 6-1 in the Jets' last seven games following an ATS win. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Jets.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Despite the losses, the New York Jets have covered four of their last six games. But this is still the Jets, and they’re a hard team to put your money on.
Even in last week’s victory, they were out-gained by nearly a full yard per play, and managed 3.0 yards per carry.
The biggest factor for the win was that the Rams finished 2 for 12 on third and fourth downs, while the Jets converted 8 of 18 on theirs. On the year, J-E-T-S are converting third downs at 33 percent, which is the second-worst rate in the league. The defense also allows 45 percent of third downs on the year, which makes last week’s percentages slight outliers to how the team has played all year in these critical situations.
Cleveland has yet to see a spread as high as -9.5 this season and failed to cover against the Jaguars four weeks ago at -7.5. Last week’s cover as a 6.5-point favorite against the Giants was versus arguably the league’s worst starting QB in Colt McCoy, but Sam Darnold isn’t on anyone’s Top-25 list either.
It’s tough to imagine the 1-13 Jets stringing back-to-back competitive performances, as this New York team was 3-8 ATS just a month ago. They still love running Frank Gore despite some better/younger options and are one of the most penalized teams in the league.
Baker Mayfield and the Browns are playing their best football of the year, as their ability to pass off the run has made this offense a tough task for any defense, including the Jets’ No. 29 pass-D. And who knows, maybe Adam Gase and the Jets don’t want to win another game this year.
PREDICTION: Cleveland -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Neither team has really dominated the total markets this year, as both teams are a combined 14-14 O/U in 2020. Cleveland has seen an average total of 47.5 over the last five games and is 3-2 O/U.
The Browns' secondary is amongst one of the worst in the league (25th) but New York’s Darnold isn’t talented enough to take advantage of this weakness.
The Jets’ QB has thrown for over 200 yards just once in his last six starts despite being surrounded by an under-appreciated receiving group. Darnold also has killed the offense with his turnovers at home, committing seven giveaways in his last three home games.
The Jets are last in the league in scoring TDs in the red zone, as their 44 percent success rate is nearly 4 percent lower than the next-worst team. Since Week 14, the Jets have just 11 plays in the attacking red zone.
Cleveland’s defense played well with the lead last week and managed a sleepy second half that saw a combined 10 points scored. The Browns are going to run the ball a lot. That’s a given. But their success on the ground could be limited, as stud tackle Wyatt Teller is questionable and his replacement has just hit the I.R. RB Nick Chubb gained just 3.3 yards per carry last week without Teller.
PREDICTION: Under 47 (-110)
Browns vs Jets Betting Card
- Cleveland -9.5 (-110)
- Under 47 (-110)
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