It's been nothing but coal in the stocking for the Cleveland Browns. After losing on Monday with a ridiculously depleted roster mostly comprised of practice-squad players, they now travel to Lambeau (on a short week) to face the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day.
The Packers, who have the league's best record at 11-3, are unsurprisingly NFL betting favorites at home, laying a touchdown against a 7-7 Cleveland team that is clinging to fleeting playoff hopes.
Here are our best free NFL picks and predictions for Browns vs. Packers on Saturday, December 25.
Browns vs Packers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened at Green Bay -8 but has moved to -7 as of the time of writing. The total sits at 44.5, the same number as the starting tally.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Browns vs Packers predictions
- Prediction: Packers -7 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Browns team total Under 17.5 (-130)
Predictions made on 12/22/2021 at 11:03 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Browns vs Packers game info
• Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
• Date: Saturday, December 25, 2021
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX, NFL NETWORK
Browns at Packers betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Browns: Baker Mayfield QB (Probable), Case Keenum QB (Probable), Kareem Hunt RB (reserve/COVID-19), Jarvis Landry WR (Probable), Harrison Bryant TE (Questionable), JC Tretter C (reserve/COVID-19), Jedrick Wills Jr. OT (reserve/COVID-19), Myles Garrett DE (Questionable), Jadeveon Clowney DE (reserve/COVID-19), Malik McDowell DT (reserve/COVID-19), Malik Jackson DT (reserve/COVID-19), Mack Wilson LB (reserve/COVID-19), Greg Newsome CB (Questionable), Troy Hill CB (reserve/COVID-19), A.J. Green CB (Probable), Grant Delpit S (reserve/COVID-19), Ronnie Harrison S (reserve/COVID-19), John Johnson III S (Questionable), Takkarist McKinley DE (Out), Jack Conklin OT (Out), Chris Hubbard OT (Out).
Packers: Aaron Rodgers QB (Questionable), Aaron Jones RB (Questionable), Marquez Valdez-Scantling WR (reserve/COVID-19), Equianimeous St. Brown WR (Questionable), Billy Turner OT (Questionable), David Bakhtiari OT (Doubtful), Jaire Alexander CB (Out), Za'Darius Smith LB (Out), Randall Cobb WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Packers.
Browns vs Packers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
In case you missed the fiasco that was the Cleveland Browns last week, they had their Week 15 game moved from Saturday to Monday due to a COVID outbreak throughout the roster, ultimately still playing with 15 of 22 starters sidelined (including quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum) and 18 active roster players (and head coach Kevin Stefanski) sidelined due to the virus.
Cleveland ended up losing 16-14 to Las Vegas on a last-second field goal — a spirited effort for a team that had to start Nick Mullens after he had one whole day of practice, but the reality is it was a crushing loss for a team trying to stay relevant in a crowded AFC playoff race... and things only get tougher this week.
First, there's still the COVID issue. As of Wednesday, Cleveland still had 14 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list. And while we could expect many (if not all) of those players to return — Mayfield and Keenum are cleared to play — there's still the second issue of the "normal" injuries for the Browns, which include DPOY candidate Myles Garrett (who suffered a minor groin injury Monday), safety John Johnson III dealing with a hamstring ailment, plus DT Malik Jackson tweaking his knee and DE Takk McKinley tearing his Achilles.
Finally, there's issue No. 3: Aaron Rodgers and his merry band of Packers. Green Bay has the NFL's best record at 11-3 as Rodgers is having another MVP-level season, throwing for 3,487 yards with 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The Packers are averaging 35.8 points per game over their last four contests, in which Rodgers has 13 TDs (against zero interceptions). The future Hall of Famer will also make history with his next passing TD, as it will be the 443rd of his career, putting him ahead of Brett Favre for the most in Packers history.
The Packers barely hung on last week for a 31-30 win over the Ravens, in which Baltimore backup QB Tyler Huntley nearly overcame a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit, but Huntley's play the last few weeks has been far superior to anything the Browns have been able to generate on offense.
Even prior to this COVID ravaging, Cleveland has scored 17 points or fewer in six of its previous eight games. Monday's effort moved it to seven of nine, but it's concerning that an offense comprised mainly of practice squad players is generating as much as the regular starters would. Regardless of who is under center, Cleveland ain't scoring much.
But seriously: Are you really going to bet on Mayfield, Keenum, or Mullens against Rodgers at Lambeau?
No, we didn't think so.
Prediction: Packers -7 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
We'll give the Browns defense credit: despite missing a number of key players, plus suffering mid-game injuries, the Cleveland stop unit held the Raiders to just 16 points. Now, this Packers defense is a whole different beast, having topped 30 points in four straight games, but in order to get 45 points, we'll likely need some help from Cleveland.
And I don't think they'll do it.
As mentioned above, the Browns offense is bad when fully healthy.. and could still be missing some key players again this Saturday. Green Bay's defense hasn't exactly been stout lately, surrendering at least 28 points in four straight games, but it's a stark contrast from the defense that gave up 15.8 ppg in Weeks 2-10. And again, Cleveland's offense is horrid, so we'll lean towards the Pack having a nice bounce-back defensive effort.
Plus, Green Bay hasn't been totally just a high-flying aerial attack. The Pack have still run at least 24 times in four of their last five games, helping chew up clock, while the Browns live and die by the ground game.
Adding to our Under support is that it will feel like the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field on Christmas Day, with temperatures expected to feel in the low-20s and winds kicking up to 14 mph — making it even more likely these teams will run.
The Under is 6-3 in Green Bay's last nine December home games (spanning the last three-plus seasons). While the Packers have the capability to destroy this total singlehandedly, we see them running a lot in the latter parts of this contest and coasting to a comfortable win that falls Under the total.
Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)
Best bet
If you haven't figured it out by now, we really don't think fondly or Cleveland's offense — regardless of who will play at QB this week.
The Browns' inability to score points in ideal conditions is a reality, and going to Green Bay in December is far from ideal. Green Bay has held the time of possession advantage in six of its last seven games, forcing opponents to attack with quick strikes to generate points.
With arguably the league's worst passing attack, chunk plays and deep throws are basically non-existent in the Cleveland offense, and the frigid temperatures will further keep the Browns grounded.
Cleveland just scored 14 points at home against a Raiders defense that had given up nearly 35 ppg over its last five. We think 18 points would be ambitious on the road, on a short week, with limited practice time for the Browns this Saturday.
Pick: Browns team total Under 17.5 (-130)
