After being left for dead, the Cleveland Browns roared back to life with an emphatic win over Cincinnati last week. They'll try to keep the momentum going in Week 10 but will face a stiff challenge in visiting Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots, who have won four of their last five games.
The Patriots are coming off consecutive impressive road victories and NFL betting odds have them as slim home favorites against Cleveland, which is again dealing with some major injury concerns.
Here are our best free NFL picks and predictions for Browns vs. Patriots on Sunday, November 14.
Browns vs Patriots odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened at New England -2.5 and has held at that number at the time of writing, although the status of Cleveland RB Nick Chubb could cause a shift closer to kickoff. The total opened at 44.5 and has ticked up a point to 45.5 — again monitor Chubb's status as this could cause some reaction if he does indeed play. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Browns vs Patriots picks
Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 11:04 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Browns vs Patriots game info
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Browns at Patriots betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Browns: Nick Chubb RB (Out), Demetric Felton RB (Out), Greedy Williams CB (Out), Takk McKinley DE (Out), Jack Conklin OT (Out), Chris Hubbard OT (Out), Kareem Hunt RB (Out).
Patriots: Damien Harris RB (Out), Gunner Olszewski WR (Out), Jonnu Smith TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Browns 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Patriots.
Browns vs Patriots predictions
Browns +2.5 (-110)
The biggest storyline of this game, at least right now, is that both teams are staring at taking the field in Week 10 with running backs way down on the depth chart. Cleveland star RB Nick Chubb, plus RBs Demetric Felton and John Kelly, are all sitting on the reserve/COVID-19 list after testing positive early in the week. Considering Kareem Hunt is still sidelined with a calf injury, the Browns' backfield could just be D'Ernest Johnson and some practice squad backs.
Not to be outdone, the Patriots are playing without No. 1 RB Damien Harris, who suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of New England's Week 9 win over Carolina.
Thankfully for Cleveland, it is better equipped to handle losing its lead RB. It is the No. 1 rushing team in the league, and Johnson went off for 146 yards on 22 carries in a feature role against Denver three weeks ago, while the next man up for New England is Rhamondre Stevenson — who has 136 total yards rushing for the season.
Yes, Bill Belichick is a genius and the master of identifying (and neutralizing) your strength, meaning he will likely sell out to stop the run and force Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield to power the offense. While Mayfield has struggled this season, Cleveland had finally severed ties with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. last week, and without him on the field, the Browns offense accounted for 35 points against Cincy and continued the trend of better play with him absent — Cleveland is 14-15, averages 22.7 points per game and has a 38.7 third-down percentage with OBJ since he joined the team in 2019... and is 8-4 with 25.8 ppg and a 45-percent third-down efficiency without him.
Let's also note that this Patriots defense has given up at least 22 points in four of its last seven games, with the three exceptions being last week against Carolina (Sam Darnold is very bad), Week 7 against the Jets (Zach Wilson might be worse) and Week 4 versus Tampa Bay (heavy rains depressed the scoring as NE still gave up nearly 400 yards of offense). New England has also given up at least 120 rushing yards in five games this season, with three of the sub-100 performances being the Jets, Dolphins, and Texans (32nd, 30th, and 29th in rushing) and the fourth being last week, where the game script ruled out running for the Panthers quickly.
Basically, this Pats defense has done a good job of feasting on bad offenses and advantageous situations, while the offense has also exploited some bad defenses (three of the last five have been among the worst nine defenses in expected points contributed) and on the season sits 21st in EPA per play on the season.
Cleveland's defense has given up 16 points or fewer in five of its last seven games (with back-to-back shredding from the Chargers and Cardinals being the outliers), sitting second in the NFL in QB pressure percentage — despite a low blitz rate — and goes against a Patriots team that is middle of the pack in pass protection.
The Browns have the more talented defense and this revitalized, OBJ-free offense can match up against New England. Even if Chubb doesn't play, it's hard for us to not take Cleveland getting points... and if he does play? We like this bet even better.
Under 45.5 (-110)
Over the last six weeks, the Patriots have given up 369.3 yards per game, but have been buoyed by a defense that tightens up as teams get in the danger areas — giving up the sixth-fewest red zone touchdowns and a red zone TD percentage of just 52 percent (eight-best in the NFL) — and has 16.3 percent of all opponent drives end in turnovers (fourth-highest in the league).
The Browns offense has struggled to find paydirt in the red zone, going for six points on just 54.8 percent of trips (tied for ninth... with the Pats), but does tend to put together long drives, owning the league's highest average drive length and having fewer than nine percent of drives end in a turnover.
So, long drives that result in field goals... that is not a recipe for games to go Over.
On New England's side, rookie Mac Jones is not a deep-threat QB (sitting 19th in yards per attempt and 25th in air yards per completion) and will again be checking down often in the face of constant Cleveland pressure... not a recipe for games to go Over.
The line has actually moved towards the Over, with the total ticking up a point from opening, but we're going to go against this action. The Under is 8-3 in New England's last 11 at Foxborough — let's make it 9 of 12.
Mac Jones Over 22 completions (+100)
With Harris out for New England, the backfield reigns will go to Stevenson and Brandon Bolden — two guys that have neither topped 62 rushing yards in a game this season — limiting the upside of a ground attack that was only 15th in the league in rushing yards as it was.
That's going to put more of the offensive onus on the rookie Jones to move the offense, and what better way to supplement a shaky rushing attack than throwing short, effective passes that almost serve as de facto runs?
As mentioned above, Jones is not a deep-threat QB — but he is very accurate and efficient in the short game. Jones has attempted as least 30 passes in seven of his nine career NFL games, completing at a 68-percent clip, which sits him at 21-22 completions as a possible baseline in Week 10. Factor in, again, the absence of Harris — and the need to get rid of the ball quick in the face of a Browns defense that will be coming after him all day — and we like Jones to dink-and-dunk his way Over his completion total today at plus money.
