The Baltimore Ravens can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Cleveland Browns today.
Baltimore is clicking on both sides of the ball while Cleveland is in free fall, so my top Browns vs. Ravens predictions call for the home team to pull away in the first half of this January 4 bout between the division rivals.
Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, with the game airing on ESPN.
Browns vs Ravens predictions
- Spread: Browns +19 (-115 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Ravens (-2500 at BetMGM)
- Total: Under 41.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Ravens first half -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Spread: Browns +19 (-115)
BetMGM opened Ravens -17.5, so there’s already been a notable move to the Baltimore side of this spread. It’s just an incredibly massive margin, and this is a divisional game, so I’m hesitant to lay the wood. I’m anticipating Baltimore surging to a multi-possession lead, and then resting multiple key players to open the door for a Cleveland backdoor cover.
Moneyline: Ravens (-2500)
A $100 bet on the Ravens' moneyline pays out a $4 profit, so while I do fully expect Baltimore to win, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze in this market for me. Instead, I’d consider including Baltimore in a six-point teaser. Even then, I would be wary of a backdoor cover, if Baltimore does indeed sit starters in the second half.
Total: Under 41.5 (-110)
The Ravens have been an Over machine, and this is their lowest total of the season. Still, the Baltimore defense is rounding into top form and has oodles to play for, while Cleveland has only scored 30 total points across its past four games with the Under hitting in each.
My best bet
Ravens first half -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Baltimore Ravens can secure the AFC North with a win, which will also ensure they’ll host a wild-card game as a sizable home favorite in look-ahead markets.
There isn’t nearly as much on the line for the Cleveland Browns, and they’ve dropped five straight to sit in the league’s basement with the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants at 3-13.
In particular, the Browns haven’t been able to put points on the board with an average of just 7.5 per across their past four games. With Bailey Zappe expected to start, it’s a nightmare setup with Baltimore turning a corner on defense and checking out as an elite stop unit since Week 11.
The Ravens have surrendered the second-lowest EPA per play and lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks while allowing just 16.3 points per game since Week 11. For comparison, Baltimore allowed the sixth-highest EPA per play and fourth-highest YPA to QBs with 25.3 points against per game to start the year.
Of course, the Baltimore offense has also been a juggernaut out of the gate. The Ravens are third in EPA per play in the first half, and quarterback Lamar Jackson sports the highest adjusted EPA per play and air yards (8.6) in the opening half.
The Ravens average an impressive 6.98 yards per play in the first half, while also ranking third in first-half points per game (14.9), including 18.3 through three games out of their bye week.
Look for Baltimore to pull away from Cleveland in short order, especially considering the Browns are on an ice-cold 4-17 cooler against the spread in the first half.
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Browns vs Ravens same-game parlay
Ravens first half -10.5
Ravens first quarter -6
Under 41.5
All three legs of this same-game parlay align with the edge the Baltimore defense has over the Cleveland offense. The Ravens have been scoring in bunches all season, and I’m anticipating head coach John Harbaugh looking to be aggressive early and take a commanding lead to rest key starters in the second half.
The Cleveland defense has also had multiple key starters on the injury list down the stretch, and while there have been signs, this is a unit trending in the wrong direction. Cleveland has allowed a healthy 26.6 points per game during its losing skid, after all.
Finally, the weather forecast is calling for unfavorable conditions at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Browns vs Ravens odds
Browns vs Ravens live odds
Browns vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +18 | Baltimore -18
- Moneyline: Cleveland +1047 | Baltimore -1799
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Browns vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, there has been huge action on the Baltimore side of this spread, and it makes sense given the varying importance of the game to both teams.
- Plus, in addition to losing five straight, Cleveland has also failed to cover the number in all five to drop to 4-12 against the spread for the year.
- There has been a small move to the Under at BetMGM, with the shop opening with a 42.5 total.
- The adjustment aligns with the highlighted offensive shortcomings for Cleveland, and the noted unfavorable weather forecast at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday.
- Covers Consensus data reveals 66% of ATS picks taking the points with the Browns, while 61% are on the Over.
Browns vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Browns have only covered the 1H spread in four of their last 21 games (-14.15 Units / -59% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Ravens.
Browns vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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