There are some meaningless matchups on the Week 18 slate, but the Baltimore Ravens’ season finale against the Cleveland Browns is not one of them.
From the Ravens’ chance to wrap up the AFC North to Lamar Jackson’s last chance to influence the MVP race, there’s plenty to play for — and that means the Browns vs. Ravens player props market is alive and well.
With the Browns limping to the finish line, and potentially turning to a combination of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback, I’m loading up on Baltimore props with my three favorite NFL picks for Saturday’s clash.
Browns vs Ravens props
- Derrick Henry longest rush Over 21.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM)
- Keaton Mitchell anytime touchdown (+275 at BetMGM)
- Justin Tucker Over 8.5 kicking points (-125 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Browns vs Ravens props
Prop bet #1: Derrick Henry longest rush Over 21.5 yards
Opponents beware: Derrick Henry looks ready for the postseason. King Henry rumbles into this Week 18 contest with 1,783 rushing yards to his name this year, including a combined 309 yards on the ground in his last two games. That spells trouble for the Cleveland Browns, though it’s unclear whether they’ll have to deal with Henry for the full four quarters.
With the possibility that the Baltimore Ravens limit his carries and sit its starters if the lead balloons on Saturday, I’m passing on Henry’s total rushing yards prop and taking the Over on his longest rush instead.
He powered for a 39-yard run against the Browns in the teams’ prior meeting, and he’s hit the Over on this 21.5 number in 10 of his 16 games this season.
It makes sense for the Ravens to lean heavily on the ground game here, rather than putting Lamar Jackson in harm’s way against a Myles Garrett-led Cleveland pass rush, and it doesn’t take much for Henry to get loose.
He leads all running backs in broken tackles and yards after contact, and he’s second in yards before contact, so don’t be surprised if Henry breaks free for a huge gain this weekend.
Prop bet #2: Keaton Mitchell anytime touchdown
If we get the kind of one-way traffic that the massive spread suggests, Keaton Mitchell could be in for a busy outing. He soaked up 11 carries in Baltimore’s blowout win over the Houston Texans last weekend — admittedly for minimal gains — and he’s a natural choice for fourth-quarter work here too.
Once Henry has softened up the Cleveland defense, I’m banking on Mitchell taking advantage as a change-of-pace option, and I’ll gladly take these plus odds for a touchdown in a game where he could again enjoy double-digit touches.
Week 17 was Mitchell’s first appearance of the season after recovering from a torn ACL, and his breakaway speed adds another dimension to this Ravens run game.
I expect Baltimore to put Henry in bubble wrap as soon as possible here, opening the door for Mitchell to find the end zone at some point in the second half.
Prop bet #3: Justin Tucker Over 8.5 kicking points
It’s been a really rough year for Justin Tucker, with the future Hall of Famer missing eight field goals and two extra points.
But the Ravens have stood by their long-time kicker, and he’s rewarded them with back-to-back perfect outings, nailing eight PATs and three field goals. That’s the efficiency we’ve all come to expect over the years.
Baltimore would surely love to give Tucker a few more opportunities to boost his confidence before the wildcard round arrives, and I like the Over on 8.5 kicking points for the Ravens man on Saturday.
The mission this weekend for Baltimore is to win while exerting as little energy as possible and avoiding injuries at all costs. This shouldn’t be a kitchensink game in terms of the offensive play-calling, and I see Tucker being called on for at least a pair of field goal attempts once the hosts get within range.
Even if this game turns into a blowout, Tucker should remain involved as he tunes up for more clutch kicks just around the corner.
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