An ugly losing streak has blown the New Orleans Saints off track, but misery loves company and on Sunday they’ll face a Cleveland Browns team enduring a painful year of their own.
Former New Orleans quarterback Jameis Winston leads Cleveland into this one, but my Browns vs Saints predictions expect Alvin Kamara to headline the day at Caesars Superdome.
Check out my NFL picks for a November 17 matchup that could be high on storylines but short on explosive plays.
Browns vs Saints prediction
My best bet
Alvin Kamara Over 39.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s the Alvin Kamara show the rest of the way for the New Orleans Saints. One look at their decimated receiver room — no Chris Olave, no Rashid Shaheed — confirms that Derek Carr is going to be looking for No. 41 early and often.
Although there will be nothing easy against this Cleveland Browns front seven, I’m trusting Kamara’s route-running to open up enough opportunities to hit the receiving yards Over.
Kamara has had at least 40 receiving yards seven times this year, and he’s breezed past this O/U number the past three weeks, including five catches for 54 yards against the Falcons last weekend. He’s also had a reception of at least 20 yards in each of his past three outings.
We’re unlikely to see a repeat of Kamara’s Week 9 heroics against the Panthers — 35 total touches, 215 yards from scrimmage — but it would be no surprise to see him lead the Saints in yards and targets here.
New Orleans rolled the dice with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin Austin Jr. in Week 10, but I don’t expect New Orleans to get much joy on deep shots here. Instead, the screen game could be more effective, and Kamara is an ideal checkdown target for Carr when the Cleveland pass rush inevitably gets home.
With the Saints short on other options, Kamara should be at the heart of the gameplan on Sunday.
Browns vs Saints same-game parlay
Alvin Kamara Over 39.5 receiving yards
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown
1H Under 21.5
It’s going to take time for Nick Chubb to get back to his steamrolling best after rehabbing from last season’s horrific injury, but he’s picked up the lion’s share of the backfield work for Cleveland, with an uptick in touches the past two games after just 11 carries in his season debut.
I’m looking closely at all the Chubb props here against a New Orleans defense that’s giving up 141 rushing yards per game, the sixth-worst mark in the league. The Browns have struggled to run the ball efficiently so I’m still wary of the rushing yards prop, but the Chubb anytime touchdown odds provide great value for my SGP.
Though Chubb has only found the end zone once since returning from injury, I see the visitors turning to him in the red zone, with Winston putting together a revenge game to get his team into scoring positions.
Both teams have trended towards the 1H Over, but I’m throwing out those numbers given the lengthy injury lists. I have my doubts about how many long drives we’ll see on Sunday, and I like the Under on the first-half total.
The Browns’ offense ranks last in the NFL in 1H scoring — just 6.8 points — and this will be a scrappy slugfest.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Browns vs Saints odds
Browns vs Saints live odds
Browns vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +2.5 | New Orleans -2.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland +125 | New Orleans -150
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Browns vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Browns are just 3-6 ATS this year, but the Saints are on an even worse stretch and had failed to cover in five straight outings before rebounding on Sunday.
- New Orleans is a very slight favorite despite a 2-3 home record this season.
- Cleveland has hit the team total Under in 14 of its last 19 games, and the visitors have cashed in the Under in six of their nine contests this season.
- The stumbling Browns have only reached the 20-point mark once this year.
Browns vs Saints betting trend to know
New Orleans has covered the 4Q spread in seven of its last nine games at Caesars Superdome. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Saints.
Browns vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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