If it wasn’t for a late 46-yard touchdown run from Leonard Fournette, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would in the NFL betting dog house. However, that late score helped Tampa Bay cover the spread in its win over Carolina last Sunday.
The Buccaneers are giving the points again, this time handing six to the host Denver Broncos in Week 3. The Broncos are beaten up on both sides of the ball, most notably losing starting quarterback Drew Lock for at least the next three weeks.
These are our favorite NFL free picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Broncos on September 27.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos betting preview
Weather
The forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-50s with winds blowing up to 12 mph inside Mile High Stadium on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Buccaneers: Justin Watson WR (Out).
Broncos: Drew Lock QB (Out), Courtland Sutton WR (Out), Phillip Lindsay RB (Out), Davontae Harris CB (Out), A.J. Bouye CB (Out), Von Miller LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 18-8-1 in Broncos’ last 27 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Broncos.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Broncos swap Lock for backup Jeff Driskel, which in terms of value to the point spread is a sideways move. However, it’s the ailments to those around Driskel that could doom Denver in Week 3.
Receiver Courtland Sutton is out for the season with a knee injury, standout rookie WR Jerry Jeudy is questionable with tender ribs, and the status of running back Phillip Lindsay is still up in the air after he missed Week 2’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers with turf toe.
To compound those problems, the Tampa Bay defense showed up last week against Carolina, recording five sacks with a dominant defensive front that also contained the Panthers’ ground game (in part to Christian McCaffrey going down with injury). Tampa can sell out to stop Melvin Gordon and put the game on Driskel’s subpar passing prowess.
The Bucs’ heavily-hyped offense hasn’t blown scoreboards to bits, as many expected, but they started to build momentum against Carolina’s crappy stop unit and face a Broncos defense missing plenty of important cogs, especially in the secondary with CB A.J. Bouye out for the year and fellow CB Davontae Harris out for Week 3.
Tampa Bay is expected to have WR Chris Godwin back in action after sitting out Week 2 with a concussion and WR Mike Evans is starting to click with new QB Tom Brady, with 104 yards and a touchdown through the air last Sunday.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Much is being made of Brady’s historic struggles in Denver. The Broncos are the only NFL team with a winning record against the future Hall of Famer, but it isn’t Tommy Boy who Denver needs to be concerned with on Sunday.
Tampa Bay’s ground game has options, with Fournette breaking out for a huge Week 2 effort after seeing little touches in Week 1. Behind him, the Bucs have Ronald Jones III, who led the team with 66 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving in the opening loss to the New Orleans Saints and scored a running TD versus the Panthers.
Bucs head coach Bruce Arians is very pleased with his running back rotation and the production on the ground – something Tampa Bay hasn’t had in a long time. And with Brady and the passing game still ironing out the wrinkles (ranked 21st in pass offense DVOA at Football Outsiders), the ground attack will anchor the Tampa Bay playbook.
Denver allowed 116 yards on the ground to Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry in Week 1 and 106 yards and a score to Pittsburgh’s James Conner last weekend.
PREDICTION: Under 43.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
You’ve got to look to the tight end whenever a backup quarterback is under center. The TE is often the easy way out, a short check-down option when plays break down. And with the Bucs pass rush coming for Driskel’s soul, expect Denver tight end Noah Fant to see extra targets on Sunday afternoon.
Fant is a solid option, leading the team in receiving through two weeks with nine catches for a grand total of 138 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Fant was targeted five times for four receptions and 57 yards and a score against the Steelers last Sunday.
Tampa Bay’s passing defense still has much to be desired and was roughed up by the Saints' Jared Cook in Week 1, with the New Orleans tight end making five grabs for 80 yards. The Buccos allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the position last year, including seven touchdowns.
PREDICTION: Noah Fant Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120)
Buccaneers vs Broncos betting card
- Tampa Bay -6 (-110)
- Under 43.5 (-110)
- Noah Fant Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120)
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