Buccaneers vs Cardinals Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Fournette's Versatility Runs Wild

NFL oddsmakers give the gift of points when it comes to the Arizona Cardinals’ Christmas Day duel with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Arizona, which opened as low as a 3-point home underdog, has watched this spread balloon to +7.5. The Cardinals have been a little naughty — going 4-10 SU — and their quarterback situation is anything but nice, as third-string passer Trace McSorley is slated to start Week 16.

Tampa Bay bettors could use some holiday cheer, with the Buccaneers picking up one win in their last four games while going 0-4 against the spread in that span. This Sunday showdown seems gift-wrapped for Tom Brady & Co. but the Bucs are Bad Santas when it comes to covering, owning a Grinch-like 3-10-1 ATS record.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give you my best NFL picks and predictions for Buccaneers at Cardinals on December 25.

Also, don't forget to check out Josh Inglis' SNF player props and Robert Criscola's Tom Brady Spotlight props.

Buccaneers vs Cardinals best odds

Buccaneers vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Lost in the Bucs’ disastrous second half versus Cincinnati last Sunday was just how good and effective the Tampa Bay offense was in the opening 30 minutes. The Buccaneers held a 17-3 lead at the break and posted the fourth-best 1H EPA per play of Week 15.

One thing that stood out in that brief power surge was the misdirection, movement, and amount of play action called. Tom Brady was spreading the ball around in the passing game, including connecting with pass-catching running back Leonard Fournette. 

Fournette finished the game with four catches on four targets for 30 yards, marking his third straight game with 30 or more yards receiving. His receiving yards total for Week 16’s trip to Arizona sits at 20.5 yards Over/Under, which is exactly in line with his totals the past two weeks.

Given the Cardinals are starting a third-string QB in Week 16 and will likely have no choice but to run into the maw of this stingy Buccaneers rushing defense, Tampa Bay is going to get plenty of offensive reps and this clean indoor game in Arizona sets up as a glorified practice before a key game with Carolina next weekend. 

This Cardinals defense is among the most blitz-heavy in the land, bringing extra rushers on more 34% of dropbacks. Brady is not rattled by the blitz and gets rid of the ball faster than all but two other QBs. Those quick hits and pick-ups in play-action make Fournette an excellent target in the passing game. 

Against similar blitz-heavy defenses, Fournette has been busy as a receiver. He snagged six catches on six targets for 38 yards versus Pittsburgh and five of six passes his way for 35 yards against Green Bay. He had only two receptions against Carolina in Week 7 but that was mostly due to the Bucs falling behind big and having to press longer throws in the second half.

The Cardinals have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs this season (587) on 76 receptions – an average of 7.72 yards per catch and 42 receiving yards per game. Arizona has a soft spot outside of the hash marks, struggling to set the edge allowing space down the sideline. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, Arizona is the third-worst defense at checking running backs as receivers in the NFL.

Game script and sharing snaps with fellow RB Rachaad White could work against Fournette’s receiving output on Sunday night, as the Bucs are big favorites and expected to hold a sizable lead, giving way to more handoffs in the second half. 

However, White isn’t as involved in the passing game as Fournette and Tampa offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will be rolling out a similar approach to Week 15, trying to spark the same offensive energy we saw versus the Bengals before turnovers tanked the Bucs’ attack in the second half.

Since White's emergence in the Bucs offense, Fournette’s prop totals have tanked. His receiving totals were peaking at 35.5 yards O/U back in October but haven’t strayed higher than 20.5 yards since returning from a Week 12 absence. But he’s still getting the bulk of the snaps most games (58% snap rate in Week 15, 60% in Week 14) and has eclipsed his receiving yards total in three straight and seven of his last nine contests.

My best bet: Leonard Fournette Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)

Buccaneers vs Cardinals spread analysis

This spread opened as low as Arizona +3, following the Buccaneers' second-half collapse to the Bengals in Week 15. 

However, with Cardinals QB Colt McCoy — starting in place of the injured Kyler Murray — leaving the loss to Denver with a concussion, early money started to get ahead of injury updates and bet the Buccaneers up to as high as -5.5 by Monday.

Once McCoy was ruled out and McSorley named the Week 16 starter, the line swung to as high as Bucs -8 as of Friday morning. 

The Cardinals offense has been a mess all season long but is really in a tough spot Sunday night, given that they will likely have to run the ball more considering the downtick in QB play. That puts Arizona’s ground game against one of the better run-stop units in the league.

As for the Tampa Bay attack, bettors got a brief glimpse of brilliance in Week 15 from an offense that has sputtered all season long. 

The Buccaneers were much more dynamic with their play calling in the opening half versus Cincinnati and posted 17 points in the first 30 minutes after failing to crack the 17-point mark in each of their previous three games. However, a parade of mistakes and turnovers turned that game on its ear and the Bucs lost 34-23.

According to WynnBet books, it’s been one-sided play on the road team on Christmas Day with 71% of ticket count and almost 99% of handle riding on Tampa Bay. 

Buccaneers vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total opened around 41 points on Sunday evening and dropped as low as 39.5 after news of the Cardinals QB quandaries. There has been some buyback on the Over, with hopes the Bucs can bottle that first-half magic from the Cincy game, bringing the total back up to 40.5 points.

These two playbooks rank out Top 5 in pace of play, according to Football Outsiders' seconds per play metrics, and sit No. 2 and No. 3 in plays per game on the season. But despite that frenetic pace with the football, the points per play from both sides leave much to desire — especially with the Cardinals down to their third-stringer under center.

Arizona’s defense is among the more aggressive in the league, ranked out third in blitz rate and generating the fifth most pressure per dropback. That hasn’t paid off, as the Cardinals rank out 27th in DVOA and 18th in EPA allowed per play.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been terribly inconsistent all season but still sits No. 9 in DVOA at Football Outsiders. The Bucs bring blitz on over 28% of dropbacks (10th most) and have collected 40 sacks on the season (sixth), but we’ve seen them rolled by stronger offenses. Arizona doesn’t fall into that category.

WynnBet is reporting 52% of ticket count and 58% of money on the Over. Arizona enters Week 16 with an 8-6 O/U count while Tampa is among the better Under wagers with a 4-10 O/U count.

Buccaneers vs Cardinals same-game parlay

Fournette Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110) + Bucs team total Over 19.5 (-300) + White Over 12.5 rushing attempts (-115) + Tampa Bay race to 10 points (-280)

Fournette tops his receiving yard total again against one of the worst defenses at defending pass-catching RBs. His backfield mate White does the damage on the ground, sealing the deal in the second half. The Bucs pick up where they left off in that first half versus Cincinnati and put 20-plus on the board. And Tampa Bay beats the Cardinals to 10 points, with Arizona among the slowest starting scoring attacks and playing with a QB3 under center. 

SNF SGP odds: +425 at bet365

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Buccaneers vs Cardinals betting trend to know

Since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers are 7-3 SU as a road favorite of a touchdown or more but have gone just 3-7 ATS versus those lines of -7 or higher. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Cardinals.

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