NFL Week 9 closes out when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.
I run down the “anytime touchdown” market and single out who could set up for Tampa in the TD department, as well as highlight a Kansas City skill player to punch one in.
Here are my best NFL picks for Monday Night Football surrounding TD scorers. Make sure you also read our Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions before kickoff.
Buccaneers anytime touchdown pick
Rachaad White anytime touchdown
+260 at FanDuel
Given the state of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers depth chart, Rachaad White is providing value in the touchdown market. Not only is Tampa Bay potentially down four receivers, but fellow running back Bucky Irving is nursing a toe injury heading into tonight.
White isn’t as active a ball carrier in the red zone as Irving but plays a larger role in the passing game. Given the Buccaneers are big underdogs at Arrowhead, they’ll be playing from behind and throwing a lot more, upping White’s involvement and snap count.
He’s been targeted six times in each of the past two games, reeling in 11 of those 12 passes, including three touchdown receptions — two of which came inside the red zone.
White is one of the Bucs’ best receiving options vs. man coverage, which is something the Kansas City Chiefs run almost exclusively. He’ll be Baker Mayfield’s check-down option against a very aggressive Chiefs defense that brings the blitz and owns the highest pass pressure rate in the league.
Irving’s health, as well as the status of some of Tampa Bay’s questionable WRs, will impact these TD odds, but you can find White as high as +260 to score tonight, while other books have him as low as +175.
Chiefs anytime touchdown pick
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
+120 at FanDuel
Taylor’s guy is getting his groove back. After a slow start to 2024, Travis Kelce is picking up steam with 36 targets over the past four games.
He’s brought in 30 of those passes, including a 10-for-12 day and his first touchdown catch of the year against Las Vegas last week. Now that the lid is off the end zone, Kelce is set up to cook this Buccaneers defense on prime time.
Tampa Bay has struggled against tight ends in 2024, allowing the seventh most yards and four touchdowns to the position — all four coming in the last two weeks to Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts.
The last time Kelce faced Todd Bowles' defense, he snatched 9 of 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown and has had success against those schemes over the last three head-to-head contests with Tampa (27 receptions for 307 yards).
Player projections for Kelce range from 0.4 to 0.5 touchdowns in Week 9 — the highest forecast among all TEs — with my number pegged at 0.46 TDs. The touchdown markets list him as short as EVEN money, but we’re getting extra pop at +120 over at FanDuel.
Not intended for use in MA.
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