The first NFL Sunday of the season comes to a close when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Dallas Cowboys under the prime-time lights.
The Bucs have had a bumpy summer, with the in-and-out status of Tom Brady and a slew of injuries to the crew tasked with keeping the veteran QB clean. On top of those ailments to the O-line, receiver Chris Godwin is a game-time decision for the season opener.
In the same vein, Dallas also lost bodies on the offensive line this summer and the Cowboys are thin at wide receiver, leaving this offense to lean heavily on the run game against one of the best run-stopping units in the land.
It all makes for a tough game to tackle on Sunday Night Football. I break down the point spread, Over/Under total, and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Buccaneers at Cowboys.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys best odds
Buccaneers vs Cowboys picks and predictions
The Cowboys want to run the ball… because Jerry Jones says so.
That game plan could have Dallas running into a wall over and over again on Sunday night, with Tampa Bay being one of the most established units against the ground game.
The Bucs ranked out No. 5 in EPA allowed per handoff last year and know the Cowboys are coming. With a blitz-happy Bucs team setting its sights on Dak Prescott, Dallas may have no choice but to handoff in order to keep Dak upright. That means burning plenty of downs picking up short gains and forcing the Cowboys (who are also so damn penalty prone) into many third-and-long situations.
Dallas found itself in third down squeezes 13.4 times per game in 2021 — seventh most in the NFL — including 17 third downs when it played Tampa Bay in Week 1 of last year. The Cowboys will have no choice but to throw and Tampa will bring the house on those snaps, leaving Prescott to look for a quick pressure release.
Enter running back Tony Pollard, who has a receiving yards total as low as 16.5 (Over -145) while other shops are dealing this Over/Under prop at 20.5 yards (Over -110) for Sunday night.
While head coach Mike McCarthy says he has two RB1s, Pollard may lose carries to Ezekiel Elliott but gets on the field for those crucial third downs and passing plays.
He reeled in four balls for 29 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 1 2021 and with the receiving corps lacking options beyond CeeDee Lamb and TE Dalton Schultz, the “Dash” in Dallas’ “Dine & Dash” combo will be utilized more in the air attack.
Last season, the Buccaneers allowed the fifth most receiving yards to running backs (average of almost 46 yards per game) and the sixth highest yards after the catch. Pollard, obviously, is a YAC master with 8.8 yards after the catch on average in 2021.
My best bet: Tony Pollard Over 16.5 receiving yards (-145 at Caesars)
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
This spread opened with Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point road favorite back in May, hot on the heels of Tom Brady’s brief retirement and return announcement in March. Early money jumped on Dallas and pushed this line to down to Bucs -1.5.
The teams traded injury news for most of August, with the spread bouncing between Tampa -1 and -1.5. It climbed to -2 once the calendar flipped to September, and has since gone back to the opener this week.
Books like BetMGM are reporting 56% of tickets and 55% of the money are on the visiting Buccaneers while our Covers Consensus shows a dead-even 50/50 split in terms of picks on Sunday Night Football.
Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under hit the board at 51.5 points in May and has moved around that number most of the summer, sliding as high as 53.0 points in July before plummeting to as low as 49.5 upon news of the Bucs’ offensive line injuries. This sits anywhere from 50.0 points at prominent offshores to as high as 51.0 among some Las Vegas-based books.
BetMGM is reporting a heavy ticket count and handle on the Under as early-bird bets are reacting to offensive line issues and receiving ailments. So far, 70% of bets and 73% of the money are on the Under.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys game info
• Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 9:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Buccaneers vs Cowboys key injuries
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys betting trend to know
Dallas is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as a home underdog over the past six seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys.
