The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to rebound after last Sunday’s 38-3 smackdown and will head to Carolina to take on a Panthers team that could be without Christian McCaffrey—again.
Tampa Bay sits a half-game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South but three games ahead of the 3-6 Panthers, who opened as six-point home underdogs for Sunday’s tilt. The total opened at 48 but has since risen to 50.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Panthers on November 15 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers betting preview
Weather
Rain is not expected at the Bank of America Stadium for Sunday, with temperatures in the low 70s and winds blowing SW up to 20 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Buccaneers: Ali Marpet G (Out), Khalil Davis DL (Out).
Panthers: Christian McCaffrey RB (Out), Russell Okung G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in Tampa Bay’s last nine games following a SU loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Panthers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Bettors will be apprehensive to lay six points with the Bucs after Sunday night’s performance. Tampa gained just 4.2 yards per play and walked away with just a field goal in 60 minutes against a rested Saints team. The Panthers’ defense is nowhere near as stout as the Saints, however, as Carolina allowed 6.8 yards per play to the Chiefs last week, 5.9 YPP to Atlanta in Week 8 and 6.2 to the Saints in the week before that.
The Buccaneers were dealing with a whole lot of hype over the last two weeks but the truth of the matter is: Tampa almost lost to Daniel Jones and the Giants in Week 8 and forgot to show up last Sunday night. This is not a team playing its best football right now.
Carolina is 3-1 ATS in games when they are underdogs of six or more points this year and have covered against the Chiefs and Saints in two of the last three weeks. The team will have no problem playing without Christian McCaffrey if he does sit as Carolina went 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) in games that CMC has missed this year.
New Orleans QB Drew Brees tossed four TDs against this supposedly-elite defense and Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater is coming off a 300-yard performance against KC’s No. 7 pass defense last week.
We aren’t jumping on a Carolina moneyline, but we do like the Panthers to keep it close. Carolina has one of the league’s best passing attacks and can score quickly, making us take the home team and the points.
PREDICTION: Carolina +6 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
This is a tricky one with rain projected for Sunday’s game. The good news is that the wind will be minimal, which may be one of the reasons why the total has climbed 2.5 points since opening.
The Over has hit in two of the Panthers' last three games, with the one Under coming in terrible playing conditions in Week 8. A lot of the recent Over success has to do with their passing offense, which is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt—good for seventh-best in the league. On top of their impressive passing game, the Panthers also have bottom-10 DVOA run and pass defenses per Football Outsiders.
Bridgewater threw for a season-high 367 yards against the Buccaneers' defense in Week 2 but failed to toss a TD. Carolina left plenty of points on the board in that game, with three turnovers deep inside the attacking zone.
We also like Brady and the Bucs to figure things out offensively and playing a Carolina team that has allowed 25 points or more in three straight games will help. We missed the best number (opened at 48) but are still getting on the Over train with the number still trending up.
PREDICTION: Over 50.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. In those five games, they have averaged 26 points per game and have topped 21 points in all but one of those matches.
The Panthers have two top-24 WRs in Robby Anderson and DJ Moore and their No.3 receiver, Curtis Samuel, is coming off a 9-for-9, 105-yard game and has totaled four TDs in his last three games.
Even without McCaffrey, this team can sling the rock and if Bridgewater can limit the turnovers, they can run up the scoreboard—Carolina has the same yards per play as Buffalo on the year.
PREDICTION: Carolina team total Over 21.5 (-115)
Buccaneers vs Panthers betting card
- Carolina +6 (-110)
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Carolina team total Over 21.5 (-115)
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