Buccaneers vs Patriots SNF Prop Bets: Jakobi Meyers A Rare Patriot With Good Prop Value

Sunday Night Football for Week 4 features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots — and has become one of, if not the most, heavily bet regular-season game in NFL history.

Tom Brady and the Bucs, who have moved off the -6.5 and are now a touchdown favorite, are taking a ton of money and creating record liability for sportsbooks.

However, that’s not concerning us so much in the NFL prop world as we’ve set our betting sights on a trio of (hopefully) profitable player props ahead of Sunday night’s historic game.

We bring you our favorite free Buccaneers vs. Patriots prop picks and predictions for Sunday, October 3.

Buccaneers vs Patriots prop picks

• Mike Evans anytime TD (+125 at PointsBet)
• Leonard Fournette Over 47.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Jakobi Meyers Over 5.5 receptions (-115 at BetMGM)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Buccaneers vs Patriots SNF props

Thank Evans

Tampa Bay TE Rob Gronkowski did not make the trip to Foxborough and will not play for Sunday’s match after injuring his ribs in a Week 3 loss to the Rams. The loss of Gronk is a big blow to the Tampa offense, especially inside the 20-yard line.

Gronkowski has four catches in the red zone this season, which have all gone for six points. He is tied for the team lead with six RZ targets and his absence will free up more looks for another Tampa pass-catcher.

But who is the likely benefactor of these extra targets?

Mike Evans has seen five RZ targets over the last two games and has two touchdowns to show for it. He also has 19 targets since Week 2, compared to Chris Godwin’s 15. Evans runs the fade and out route more inside the 20-yard line than any other TB receiver — and both his TDs came on short out routes to the boundary.

At 6-foot-5 and 231 pounds, the former first-rounder is a perfect Brady target if the Bucs get close to paydirt.

The Buccaneers have activated Antonio Brown off the COVID list and his addition to the receiving group could cut into Evans’ work between the 20s, but with no Gronk, Brady will look for the bigger-bodied Evans in the red zone.

Evans’ TD prop last week closed at +100 and getting it at +125 — with Gronk out of the picture — is great value.

PREDICTION: Mike Evans anytime TD (best odds: +125 at PointsBet)

Four to the Floor 

This game’s hype is approaching insane levels (yes, we’re partially to blame). Everyone is expecting Tom Brady to come into Gillette Stadium and throw for 600 yards and six TDs to shove it in Bill Belichick’s expressionless face.

But wouldn’t it give Brady the last laugh if the Bucs showed up in New England and leaned on the run — when the Pats’ coaching staff is probably gearing up for an aerial assault? Brady only needs 68 yards to pass Drew Brees’ record for most career passing yards, anyway. 

Enter Lombardi Lenny AKA Leonard Fournette and his 47.5 total rushing yards prop. The Bucs were forced to pass last week after falling behind early, with Fournette seeing just 36 percent of the snaps. Gio Bernard led the backfield in snaps but the third-down RB has been ruled out for Week 4.

Fournette only has to deal with Ronald Jones, who has seen under 18 percent of the snaps in two of Tampa’s three games.

The Bucs have averaged just 16 carries per game to open the season. This number is not indicative of the Bucs’ long-term game plan and is, frankly, unsustainable — Tampa rushed the ball at the sixth-lowest rate last year and still ran the ball 24.5 times a game.

Fournette averaged 16 carries per game during last year’s playoff run and if he can get the majority of that volume Sunday — versus a NE rush defense that allowed Alvin Kamara to churn out 87 yards last week — Fournette could easily top his modest rushing total Sunday Night.

PREDICTION: Leonard Fournette Over 47.5 rushing yards (best odds: -114 at FanDuel)

Jakobi Flash Player

The Tampa Bay secondary got dunked on last week in Los Angeles as Matt Stafford threw for 343 yards and four scores. The Bucs’ defense just couldn’t get off the field and allowed the Rams to go 10 for 15 on third downs.

That's continued a season-long trend where opponents are completing 72 percent of their passes versus the Buccaneers —  that’s not a good number. 

Bruce Arians’ squad just recently signed Richard Sherman from the podcast circuit, showing their desperation in the secondary. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is out but Jamel Dean will likely return Sunday after getting in some practice late this week. This is the same starting lineup from Week 1 (minus SMB) that gave up 403 yards to Dak Prescott. It's still a terrible group even if it's getting healthier.

So where can we find value in this matchup? Jakobi Meyers leads all New England receivers with 29 targets — 10 more than the next Pats receiver. His SNF totals sit at 61.5 receiving yards and 5.5 catches. Meyers runs his snaps mostly out of the slot, meaning the possible addition of N’Keal Harry shouldn’t hurt his snaps. Ross Cockrell mans the SCB position for the Bucs and has allowed 15 receptions on 21 targets.

Meyers and Mac Jones have established a high-volume rapport and we expect that to continue Sunday night with the Patriots likely playing catch-up. Meyers has led the team in targets every game and with Jones’ passing attempt total at 38.5, we’re hoping for another heavy passing attack from the rookie QB who is getting more comfortable each week.

Coming off a nine-catch game and having topped four catches twice this year, we’re riding the Over on Meyers’ reception total.

PREDICTION: Jakobi Meyers Over 5.5 receptions (best odds: -115 at BetMGM)

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