The ecosystem of the NFC will look very different after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3.
The defending Super Bowl champs were rare NFL betting underdogs for this cross-country trip west, opening as big as +1.5. However, early action on Tampa Bay has bumped this spread over the fence and the visitor is now giving L.A. a point inside SoFi Stadium.
We’ve got free NFL picks and predictions for Buccaneers at Rams – the biggest game of the day – on September 26.
Buccaneers vs Rams odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The lookahead line for this huge NFC showdown was set at Los Angeles -1 back in the spring, marking the only game in which Tampa Bay was installed as an early underdog. The official Week 2 spread followed suit with the Bucs as big as +2 at some books. However, early play on Tampa has pushed this point spread over the fence to Bucs -1. The total for Sunday’s late afternoon kickoff opened as low as 54 and is now up to 56 points.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Buccaneers vs Rams picks
Picks made on 9/22/2021 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buccaneers vs Rams game info
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Buccaneers at Rams betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Buccaneers: Kevin Minter LB (Out), Jaydon Mickens KR (Out), Antonio Brown WR (Out), Jason Pierre-Paul LB (Out).
Rams: Darrell Henderson Jr. RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as home underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Rams.
Buccaneers vs Rams predictions
Tampa Bay -1 (-110)
With a spread this close, bookies are calling for a nail-biter in Los Angeles this Sunday. And as good as Matthew Stafford has been in two games in the L.A. blue and yellow, it’s tough to bet against No. 12 when the chips are down.
The Rams defense had success versus Tom Brady in a 27-24 win at Tampa Bay in November of last year, holding him to 216 yards passing and picking him off twice while getting solid pressure up front for only one sack, but five QB hits. At the time, the Bucs were stumbling in the second half of the season (1-3 SU between Weeks 9 and 12) and L.A. was coming off a bye with two full weeks to scheme up for Brady and the Buccaneers.
The Rams defense doesn’t enjoy that advantage this time around and truthfully hasn’t been that dominant through two games in 2021. Los Angeles, who sits fourth in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, allowed a ho-hum Chicago offense to pick up short gains for 24 first downs and dominate possession in Week 1. Then last weekend, the Colts offense, - which is playing catchup after a summer of injuries - cracked L.A. for 354 yards on offense, 22 first downs and also won the TOP war.
The big difference has been the Rams’ red-zone defense, which has given up three touchdowns on seven stands inside their own 20-yard line and ranks No. 2 in Red-Zone Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. But where Los Angeles could stymie the likes of Chicago and Indy, Tampa is a taller task.
The Bucs enter Week 3 ranked among the elite in red-zone offense and have turned 10 red-zone trips into seven touchdowns. Brady has a bursting cornucopia of options when deep into their opponent’s end of the field – Rob Gronkowski has four red-zone TDs, Chris Godwin has two, Mike Evans has two – and knows the Tampa Bay can’t settle for field goals in this high-stakes showdown.
Under 56 (-110)
The Rams’ running game is getting thin after losing Cam Akers in the offseason and possibly being without RB Darrell Henderson Jr. for Sunday’s game. Sean McVay needs some semblance of a ground attack in order for his play-action offense to fire on all cylinders and keep the Bucs pass rush honest. Veteran RB Sony Michel is the healthiest option on the depth chart but still working his way into McVay’s system after being acquired via a trade late in the summer.
If Henderson is out or limited in action, Stafford may have to speed up and shorten his throws with Tampa teeing off with the pass rush. The Bucs have been busy, blitzing on 47 percent of dropbacks and checking rival QBs to an average depth of target of just 5.4 yards. The defensive line is also winning in the trenches with a pass-rush win rate of 63 percent – best in the league.
As for wrangling Brady, L.A. will try to keep everything in front of it and avoid getting burned by home-run balls. Tampa Bay has struck for 12 passes of 20 yards or more through two games – tied for tops in big plays – but this is a much stronger secondary than the Cowboys or Falcons, allowing only three passes of 20-plus so far.
Tom Brady Under 297.5 passing yards (-114)
OK Tom Brady, we get it. You’re the best.
Brady backed up his status as the greatest football player in history with two outstanding efforts versus two craptacular defenses to kick off 2021.
He’s amassed 655 yards and nine touchdowns on 86 pass attempts so far this season but did so against the Cowboys and Falcons (both ranked bottom of the league in Passing Defense DVOA). The Rams are a much stiffer test and protect against those big gains, allowing an average depth of target of just 3.6 yards through two outings, and Brady will likely be without explosive WR Antonio Brown due to COVID-19 (eight catches on 13 targets vs. L.A. in 2020).
This Bucs offense has also been playing at a breakneck pace, with a play every 24.65 seconds — third fastest in the NFL. Tampa Bay may be a bit more methodical in hopes of icing L.A.’s attack on the sideline and there’s bound to be some regression to Brady’s record-setting stride to start 2021.
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