A classic NFC South showdown is set for Week 8 of the NFL season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to the Big Easy to face the rival New Orleans Saints.
The NFL betting odds have NOLA as big as +5.5 for Sunday, tied as the highest amount of points ever given to the Saints at home going back to 1985. New Orleans has won three of its last four – with all three wins on the road – while Tampa Bay has rolled over a soft October schedule.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Saints on October 31.
Buccaneers vs Saints odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The lookahead line for this game was as low as Saints +4 before their close call on Monday night and has since run up to as high as +5.5 with early money on Tampa Bay. The Bucs are -5.5 (-115) which could mean a move to -6 before Sunday. The total was originally up at 51 points but has slid down to 49.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Buccaneers vs Saints picks
Picks made on 10/27/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buccaneers vs Saints game info
• Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Sunday, October 31, 2021
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Buccaneers vs Saints betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Buccaneers: Dee Delaney CB (Out), Antonio Brown WR (Out).
Saints: Taysom Hill QB (Out), Andrus Peat G (Out), Dwayne Washington RB (Out), Michael Thomas WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Saints are 9-5 ATS (64%) as rare home underdogs under Sean Payton (since 2006) and 5-2 ATS (71%) as a home dog versus a divisional opponent in that span. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Saints.
Buccaneers vs Saints predictions
Saints +5.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay has enjoyed a soft entry into 2021 on the heels of its Super Bowl title. The Bucs have faced just two team teams ranked Top 10 in DVOA (Dallas and L.A. Rams) and three inside the Top 13 (Patriots), going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in those contests.
Outside of those tougher challenges, Tampa has gotten fat against the likes of Philadelphia (21st), Chicago (24th), Miami (28th), and Atlanta (31st), going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against those cupcakes (backdoored by the Eagles).
The Saints find themselves ranked No. 7 in overall DVOA but haven’t been as impressive as their divisional counterparts, en route to a 4-2 SU start to the season. New Orleans’ level of competition has been a bit stiffer, but it’s the test of the schedule that has prohibited NOLA from turning heads.
Monday’s 13-10 win at Seattle was the Saints’ fifth travel game in the opening six contests due to Hurricane Ida displacing the team for most of September and forced them out of New Orleans (played Week 1 in Jacksonville) until October. If we look at the Saints’ two losses, one came in a tough travel/letdown spot with COVID quarantining most of the offensive coaches (Carolina) and the other in an overtime finish in an emotional return to the Superdome (Giants).
This New Orleans defense is a step up in competition for the Bucs, ranked fourth in EPA per play (-0.095) and giving up just 5.2 yards per snap to opponents. The Saints have been able to create pressure on 26 percent of their foes dropbacks and rank among the top teams in the NFL in QB knockdowns with 29.
New Orleans needs to disrupt the flow of this Tom Brady-led Bucs attack, which has put up 0.519 points per play over the last three outings (fourth in that span), most recently blasting the Bears 38-3 and covering a hefty 12.5-point spread in Week 7.
Offensively, the Saints fall short measured against Tampa Bay, but they can help out the defense with a methodical pace and plenty of Alvin Kamara. While New Orleans dynamic RB may not be able to get gains on the ground against the stingy Bucs rush defense, he can do damage through the air. Kamara reeled in 10 passes for 128 yards receiving in the win at Seattle and helped NOLA chew up 32:49 worth of possession.
New Orleans may not win this NFC South war, but a near 6-point spread is way too much to give a home team with an elite defense that is better than an already impressive 4-2 record indicates. And with Bucs -5.5 juiced to -115, a move to New Orleans +6 is looming. You can wait for that move or just buy NOLA +6 around -115 now.
The Saints have covered in five of their last six homestands versus the Buccaneers and has never been this big of a dog in any of them.
Under 49.5 (-110)
I really liked the Under 51 points on the look-ahead total for this game before New Orleans played the Seahawks on Monday. And even with this number slimming to 49.5 points, I still like the Under.
New Orleans knows it can’t win a shootout against Tampa Bay – not with this lot of WRs and not with QB Jameis Winston’s wheels wobbling the past two outings. Winston has completed just 34 of 65 throws (52%) which isn’t all on him, as the receivers have had a number of bad drops and ill-time routes.
Time will be on NOLA’s side when it has the football, running the second slowest pace in the league with an offensive snap every 31.25 seconds. Expect plenty of short throws between the hash marks with Winston testing Tampa’s banged-up secondary only a handful of times.
The Bucs aren’t going to score 37 points in this one, which is what they’ve averaged over the past three contests. Tampa Bay has been a pass-first team for most of the season, handing off on just 29 percent of offensive plays in the opening four games. However, there has been a swing toward the ground game in recent weeks, with Leonard Fournette leading that charge and the Bucs going run on more than 40 percent of snaps in the last three outings. That’s made Tampa the top TOP team in the league during that span, with an average of 36:02 eaten up.
New Orleans has stayed below the total in six straight divisional matchups and is 2-7 Over/Under in its last nine games, going back to 2020.
Jameis Winston anytime TD (+600)
Winston faces his old team as the starter this time around and will be under fire from an aggressive Buccaneers stop unit that brings the blitz more than any other team in the NFL (39.4-percent blitz rate). Those extra rushers will have Winston running for his life on more than a few snaps.
Jameis has been busy with his legs in recent outings, scrambling for 66 yards on 14 carries the past two games after running for just 60 total yards in the opening four contests. Winston faced a similar blitz-happy defense versus Carolina in Week 2 and ran three times for 19 yards, including an eight-yard touchdown scramble.
With all eyes on Kamara inside the red zone, don’t be surprised if Sean Payton rolls out a QB keeper or Winston dives for the goal line on a broken play under pressure. The narrative is there and the price is right.
