The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 of NFL action on Sunday. The Steelers are 7-4 despite a struggling offense and they're expected to easily handle a Cardinals team that is just 2-10.
NFL odds opened with the Steelers as 6-point home favorites before slimming to -5.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Steelers on Sunday, December 3.
Cardinals vs Steelers odds
Cardinals vs Steelers predictions
The Pittsburgh Steelers scored just 16 points in last week's win against the Bengals, but that was due to their struggles in the red zone. They racked up 421 yards, which was a good sign with Eddie Faulkner as their new offensive coordinator and Mike Sullivan calling plays.
The Steelers entered that contest averaging just 280.1 yards per game, which led to them firing previous OC Matt Canada last week. That said, I'm not sold that Pittsburgh's offense is all of a sudden going to start looking like "The Greatest Show on Turf."
Keep in mind that this is the same group of personnel on offense with poor blocking up front and an average group of weapons led by the mediocre Kenny Pickett at quarterback. Pickett played well last week but he still ranks just 28th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt and is 27th in pass efficiency rating. He also might be at less than 100% since he's been limited at practice due to an ankle injury.
The Steelers are just 24th in the league in offensive EPA but they are an impressive sixth in defensive EPA. However, the Arizona Cardinals' offense got a massive boost three weeks ago when Kyler Murray returned to the lineup along with running back James Conner.
The Cardinals were crushed by the Rams last week but they had covered the spread in their previous two games with Murray back at QB. Murray tore his ACL last December and was rehabbing until Week 10, when he led the Cards to a 25-23 win against the Falcons.
Arizona's defense has been terrible, sitting 31st in the league in EPA. That said, there's no way I'm laying this many points on a Steelers team that had been outgained in every game this season before last week's clash against Cincinnati, who had Jake Browning under center.
My best bet: Cardinals +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Cardinals vs Steelers same-game parlay
Cardinals +5.5
Kyler Murray Over 205.5 passing yards
Najee Harris Over 55.5 rushing yards
Murray threw for 249 yards in his Week 10 return, then had 214 in Week 11 before passing for 256 yards last week against the Rams.
The Steelers have an impressive stop unit but they are vulnerable in the secondary, ranking 24th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (236). Most models project Murray to have between 218 and 224 passing yards in this matchup, far above his O/U total of 205.5.
Jaylen Warren was officially named Pittsburgh's starting running back two weeks ago, but Najee Harris has maintained a small edge in snaps and carries. Over his last four games, Harris has rushed for 65+ yards on three occasions and had 15 carries for 99 yards last week.
Both Harris and Warren should be productive against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 140.1 ypg on the ground, and with Harris having the lower rushing O/U, I'll play his Over.
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Cardinals vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
The lookahead line for this game had the Steelers installed as 3-point faves, but after their offense racked up yards in Week 12 and the Cards were blown out by the Rams, the line reopened at Pittsburgh -6. There was buyback on the Cards at that line, and the spread has ticked down slightly to -5.5.
The total opened at 39.5 but money has come in on the Over, moving it up to 41.5.
The Steelers are 7-4 SU and ATS, which is shocking when you consider that they've been outgained by an average of 61.5 yards per game. Oddsmakers seem sold on their offense being better after firing Canada, and we're seeing their third-highest total in their last 10 contests.
The Cardinals began the season going 3-0 ATS with Joshua Dobbs at QB, but regression set in and they went 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS until Murray made his return in Week 10. They covered in their first two games, with Murray before getting clobbered 37-14 as a 1-point home underdog last week against the Rams.
Cardinals vs Steelers betting trend to know
Kyler Murray is 14-5-1 ATS in his career as an underdog on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Steelers.
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Cardinals vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 3, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Steelers -3, 39.5 O/U |
Cardinals vs Steelers latest injuries
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