Carson Wentz TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 6

You thought last week's TNF was an absolute slop fest? Well hoo boy did the NFL schedule pull a "hold my beer" moment for Week 6 by giving us... the Washington Commanders vs. the Chicago Bears!

I wanted to focus my spotlight this week on a punter — because this TNF matchup is truly a metaphor for us punting away 3+ hours of our lives by watching this game — and in a fair and just world, there would be TNF props available for punters.

But alas, there are not, because this is not a fair and just world — which is why we are left to decide on our “best” Commanders vs. Bears picks in the first place.

So our consolation (in which we'll need consolation) is to key in on some Carson Wentz props, because it's truly a mixed bag of value.

Betting on Wentz is always a roller-coaster of emotions, and my free NFL picks for Wentz on Thursday cover all the bases: the good, the bad, and the WTF was that?!?

Carson Wentz TNF prop picks

• Over 217.5 passing yards
• Over 0.5 interceptions
• Longest pass completion Over 34.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Carson Wentz TNF props

Soldiering on

For better or for worse (and through five weeks, it's "for worse"), the Washington Commanders offense runs through Carson Wentz and the passing attack.

The artists formerly known as the WFT sit second in the NFL in passing attempts (42 per game) but just 26th in rushing attempts (23/game) — with Wentz also accounting for nearly 15% of those carries.

Even if Washington skews towards a more balanced attack, Wentz and the passing game will still have the majority of the action, against a very, very bad defense. The Chicago Bears are statistically a terrible run defense, but the coverage group isn't far behind.

Da Bears have allowest just the ninth-fewest pass yards this year, but those numbers are skewed by Daniel Jones throwing for 71 yards two weeks ago and Trey Lance throwing for 155 in a monsoon in Week 1. It's also bolstered by the Bears extreme run-heavy offense, which saps the clock and reduces opponent possessions.

Well, the Commanders' run defense has been strong over the last three weeks (79.7 yards per game), which should help quell Chicago's clock-killing antics and leave Wentz to go to work against a defense that allows the 11th-worst yards per attempt overall and permits a nearly 70% catch rate to wide receivers — and he has a few solid guys at his disposal in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Dyami Brown.

Chicago is also 13th in allowing 11.1 yards per catch: Given Wentz's current completions total is basically set at 20, that would equate to 222 passing yards Thursday, or Over his passing yards total which can be found as low as 217.5. But again — I believe those numbers are too conservative, considering Wentz has at least 25 completions in every game.

His passing yards total for TNF is seven yards lower than his previous lowest total (225.5 against Jacksonville in Week 1), and he's crushed his total in three of five games this year (336.6 ypg), with his failures coming against elite defenses in Dallas and Philadelphia.

Again: Chicago's defense is not elite. Not even close.

There are concerns about strong winds at Soldier Field on Thursday night, but the latest weather reports show nothing too game-altering for the majority of the contest. There are concerns about Wentz being on the injury report with an ailing throwing shoulder, but both he and head coach Ron Rivera said they don't expect it to be a problem.

Plus, there are also concerns about Wentz's confidence after Rivera called him out (and subsequently backtracked) following last week's loss — but the words are out there, and don't you think Wentz will want to go out to prove to his boss that he's not a total liability? I do.

Wentz is facing a bad defense, has a low passing total, and is motivated to go out and perform. I'm willing to bank he cocks back and throws more than enough to get over his yardage total on Thursday night.

Prop: Carson Wentz Over 217.5 passing yards (-115)

Mo' passes, mo' picks

Wentz will be pass happy enough to go over his yardage total, but it's not going to be all sunshine, rainbows, and lollipops for him on Thursday night because, well, he's still Carson Wentz.

The veteran quarterback is second in the NFL in interceptions (six) and turnover-worthy plays (10), per Pro Football Focus. Now, like basically any other QB in the league, he's even worse when blitzed, sitting 29th (among QBs with at least two games played) in average depth of target, 30th in completion percentage, and 35th in yards per attempt.

Thankfully, the Bears are second-last in blitz percentage this year. That's a positive right?

Right?

Think again, because the scary part about Wentz's propensity for gut-wrenching plays is that just one of those picks and three of those TWPs have come when under pressure — Wentz just routinely makes bad reads and bad throws, even with a clean pocket, as he leads the NFL with 39 "bad throws" and is sixth in bad throw percentage. 

Wentz is two years removed from leading the NFL in picks, so this isn't anything new, and Chicago's defense, for all its struggles, does have at least one interception in four of fives games this season.

Aaron Rodgers is the exception, and Carson Wentz is not Aaron Rodgers. I expect Wentz to pass a lot... and I expect Wentz to throw an interception Thursday night.

Prop: Carson Wentz Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)

Feast or famine

It's really all-or-nothing with Wentz, who overall is 30th in yards per attempt and 20th in ADOT... but is also second with 27 pass attempts of 20+ yards.

Of those deep pass attempts, Wentz is also second with 10 "big-time throws," fourth with a 32.9 ADOT on those throws, and has a pass play of 40+ yards in four of five games this season — making him 4-1 to the Over this season on his longest completion total, with his one failure being just a 31 yarder.

Wentz's number for TNF is 34.5 yards, a yard or two lower than previous five games (4x35.5, one 36.5), and it's very much in play considering he has nine 30+ yard passing plays already.

The Bears have also given up four passing plays of 30 or more yards this season, including a 44-yarder to Trey Lance in Week 1, a 55-yard to Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, and a 52-yarder to Davis Mills in Week 3.

Wentz will throw a lot of check downs, Wentz will throw a couple bombs, Wentz will throw a pick or two.

I'm betting a little bit of everything, including at least one big play, will happen — sit back and enjoy the ride. 

Prop: Carson Wentz longest completion Over 34.5 yards (-120)

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