The best bet in the NFL climbs the mountain in Week 8 when the Los Angeles Chargers (5-1 ATS) visit the Denver Broncos for an AFC West war.
The NFL betting odds have set the Chargers as 3-point road favorites in Denver after snapping a four-game losing skid with a 39-29 victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. The Broncos saw their two-game winning run snuffed out in a snow-dusted 43-16 thumping from Kansas City in Week 7.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Chargers vs. Broncos on November 1.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Denver is calling for clear, sunny skies and temperatures anywhere from low-30s to low-60s with winds blowing up to 5 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chargers: Ryan Groy C (Out), Trai Turner G (Out), Virgil Green TE (Out), Tyrod Taylor QB (Out).
Broncos: Graham Glasgow G (Out), Tim Patrick WR (Out), Mike Purcell DL (Out), Mark Barron LB (Out), Jake Butt TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Broncos are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. AFC West opponents. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Broncos.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It may be a little surprising to see only two wins from the Chargers this season, considering how well they’ve played for the betting community.
The Bolts have an average margin of minus-0.9 and this offense under rookie QB Justin Herbert has gone blow-for-blow with some of the top scoring attacks in the NFL. Los Angeles has the seventh-ranked passing offense in Football Outsiders DVOA and has been effective at moving the chains on third down, converting on 47 percent of those snaps.
Denver’s offense is not clicking nearly as well and could be without its best weapon for Week 8 with RB Phillip Lindsay in concussion protocol. The Broncos do have fellow RB Melvin Gordon III to lean on but if L.A. continues to put up points, sooner than later Denver needs Drew Lock and the passing game to show up. And so far they haven’t, ranking 31st in passing offense DVOA.
The Broncos offensive line hasn’t help Lock’s cause, allowing five sacks the past two games. That’s a damning stat, considering the Bolts just got back two of their top pass rushers in Melvin Ingram III and Justin Jones and they sacked Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew five times last Sunday.
Right now, L.A. is sitting -3 (-120) which indicates a move to -3.5 is close. If Lindsay is out, this spread could swing even further by kickoff. Bet the Bolts – and the best ATS team in football – now and avoid the half-point hook.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -3 (-120)
Over/Under pick
The Chargers allowed 29 points to the Jaguars last week, but the scoreboard shouldn’t have climbed that high, if not for a rash of poor tackling, careless defensive penalties, and some special teams mishaps. The run stop, which has been solid so far in 2020, got pushed around at times but head coach Anthony Lynn knows limiting the Broncos starts with stuffing the run.
The Denver defense played better against the Chiefs than their Week 7 final score would indicate. The Broncos dealt Kansas City’s offense a 0-for-8 on third-down tries and continued to dial up the intensity with increased blitz packages, picking up four sacks on Patrick Mahomes. Since head coach Vic Fangio made the decision to bring the heat, Denver has recorded 14 sacks the past three games.
Los Angeles is dealing with injuries to the offensive line, with center Ryan Groy, guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga all listed as question marks for Week 8. Herbert has been sacked six times over the past three games and while he has thrown quite well under pressure (especially for a rookie), the Broncos pass rush could force him to make quicker, shorter throws.
PREDICTION: Under 44.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Given the injury issues on the Bolts’ O-line and the Broncos bringing the blitz, Herbert could find himself running for his life at times in Week 8.
He rushed for a career-high 66 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville last week and has totaled 121 yards on the ground this year—picking up 4.8 yards per carry. Lynn told the media this week that he doesn’t want his prized rookie running too much but with starting RB Austin Ekeler on the shelf and No. 2 RB Justin Jackson slowed by injuries, the Chargers don’t have much on the ground to support Herbert, who led the team in rushing yards in Week 7.
Denver has allowed 170 yards on the ground to quarterbacks this season – sixth-most in the NFL – along with three rushing TDs to the position.
PREDICTION: Justin Herbert Over 15.5 rushing yards (-127)
Chargers vs Broncos betting card
- Los Angeles -3 (-120)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- Justin Herbert Over 15.5 rushing yards (-127)
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