The Los Angeles Chargers will look to clinch an AFC playoff spot when they travel to face the New England Patriots on Saturday.
A big win over the Broncos this weekend puts the Chargers in a spot to control their own destiny, and my Chargers vs. Patriots prediction is that they clinch that spot.
Find out more in my free NFL picks for Saturday, December 28.
Chargers vs Patriots predictions
Early spread lean
Chargers -3.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
After inexplicably falling apart for a game and a half, the Los Angeles Chargers finally found their defense. The Chargers roared back from a 24-13 deficit after halftime after the defense forced three straight punts from the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. Justin Herbert led touchdowns drives on two of the three ensuing drives, and Denver managed just three points in the final 24 minutes of the game.
Now with a few extra days of rest, the Chargers travel across the country to take on the New England Patriots who are still trying to figure out how things fell apart on Sunday. The Patriots hit the Buffalo Bills with body blows in the first half, taking a 14-0 lead on the road early in the second quarter. But they wouldn’t find the endzone again until the final two minutes, and some head-scratching coaching decisions led to a fifth-straight defeat.
Only the lowly New York Jets have come into Foxborough this season and left without a win, and the three teams the Patriots have defeated this season have a combined record of 15-30 record. They’re coming off an emotional letdown against a division rival, and have nothing left to play for but pride.
Since the start of Week 12, the Buccaneers rank second in the NFL in early down rush EPA and fourth in offensive success rate. It was a key reason they were able to hurt the Charger defense, as they stayed ahead of the chains and limited the pass rush ability on later downs. The Patriots rank eighth in that timespan in early down offensive success rate, but just 15th in rush EPA.
The Patriots also rank 26th over the last five weeks in dropback EPA, and defensively they rank near the bottom in most metrics. It’s why they’ve been unable to pull out close games, and why teams have eventually figured them out.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense have been putting up points in the first half, a big reason why they’re 10-5 ATS in the opening 30 minutes of their games. This Patriot team simply doesn’t have the weapons to mount comebacks, nor do they have any motivation to do so. The Chargers will pull ahead before halftime and cover the number at the final whistle.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 42.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Over the past month, the Chargers allowed 40 to the Bucs and 30 to the Ravens as well. But those two offenses are among the seven teams in the NFL to have scored 400 or more points so far this season.
And despite those big totals, the Chargers still rank first in the NFL in points allowed. They limited the Chiefs to just 19 points a few weeks ago, with a field goal as time expired being the final margin.
Only two teams have scored fewer points than the Patriots this year. And while a glance at their point totals might make you think this should go Over, dig deeper and you’ll see a lot of garbage time points. They scored only three of their 17 points against the Cardinals before the final nine minutes. They were also down 31-0 to the Dolphins before two fourth-quarter endzone visits.
The Chargers thrive on being able to rush the passer, and while Drake Maye has shown glimpses of what he might become he’s still a rookie. He’s thrown a pick seven straight games, despite completing a lot of low-risk throws. New England ranks fourth-worst in the NFL in yards per passing attempt, and this will be one of the more athletic secondaries he’s faced.
Herbert ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt on the road, and the Chargers rank 12th in early down rush EPA over the last three weeks. They’ll get a lead, and then wear down a New England defense allowing a 39.1% success rate on runs over the last four weeks. The Patriots won’t be able to get enough garbage-time points to push this one Over the total.
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Chargers vs Patriots live odds
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