Chargers vs Raiders TNF Prop Bets: O'Connell Impresses Under the Thursday Night Lights

Prop bet #1: Iron Aidan

Since the firing of Josh McDaniels and the promotion of Antonio Pierce to interim head coach, the Las Vegas Raiders have been a little more feisty. Despite coming off a 3-0 loss to the Vikings, they’re in good shape heading into this AFC West showdown.

While Aidan O’Connell hasn’t been the second coming of Ken Stabler, he has been a steady hand behind center who should stick in the league as a backup for a long time. The fourth-round pick out of Purdue heads into his seventh start two games removed from the best performance of his young career.

Don’t expect the 25-year-old to light up the scoreboard, but with Josh Jacobs potentially out with a quad injury, O’Connell should see a lot of work. On the season, he’s just 28th in EPA per play, 29th in success rate, and 31st in CPOE, but that hasn’t stopped the Raiders from throwing the rock.

In six starts this season, O'Connell is averaging 32.8 pass attempts per game and 215 passing yards per game. He’s thrown for at least 205 yards in four games this year, including in his first career start against the Chargers in Week 4.

Despite not having a shining performance in a 24-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers the first time around, Vegas didn’t shy away from allowing O'Connell to let it loose. He threw for 238 yards on 39 attempts against a Brandon Staley defense that’s been uneven all year.

The Chargers are 25th in EPA per play on defense and 22nd in EPA per dropback. They’ve allowed the fourth most passing yards per game this season (261.9) and the third-highest yards per attempt (7.7).

Staley’s unit has held just two quarterbacks — Bailey Zappe and Lamar Jackson — under 205 passing yards in 13 games this season. Two quarterbacks on a similar level to O’Connell — Zach Wilson and Tyson Bagent — have topped 204.5 passing yards against them too.

The former college walk-on is poised to throw for at least 205 against this secondary again, especially with the consistency of his pass-catching group.

Aidan O'Connell prop: Over 204.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Up and Adams

Since being traded from Green Bay to Las Vegas to team up with his college teammate Derek Carr, Davante Adams feels as if he has faded into obscurity. Despite the change of scenery, and Carr no longer being in the silver and black, Adams is still one of the best in the NFL.

Coming off back-to-back 1,500-yard seasons, the former second-round pick won’t be putting up those types of numbers again this year, but he has been O’Connell’s safety net since he took over for Jimmy Garoppolo.

On the season, Adams is averaging 5.8 receptions for 66.7 receiving yards on 9.8 targets per game. But those numbers jump up in games started by O’Connell. In the rookie quarterback’s six starts, he’s targeted Adams 63 times and it’s resulted in 37 receptions for 403 yards.

There’s yet to be an O’Connell start where Adams has been targeted less than seven times, and he’s been targeted 10 or more times in four of the rookie’s six starts. With the young gun behind center, Adams is averaging 6.1 receptions on 10.5 targets per game and has caught at least seven passes in three of six O'Connell starts.

In their start together against the Chargers in Week 4, Adams finished with eight receptions for 75 yards on 13 targets. That was the second-highest number of targets on the season that Adams had seen prior to McDaniels being fired. Since McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi were let go, Adams has seen that many targets twice in five games.

It’s clear Raiders interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree wants to get Adams the ball, and there will be opportunities against LA on Thursday. Chargers cornerback tandem Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis have combined to give up a whopping 91 receptions for 1,243 yards this year.

Davante Adams prop: Over 6.5 receptions (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Austin City Limits

With Justin Herbert out and Easton Stick making his first career start, Austin Ekeler is going to have to play a major role in the passing game for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. One of the best pass-catching backs since entering the league in 2017, Ekeler was built to be the outlet for a backup quarterback.

Coming off a 107-catch season last year, the former undrafted running back out of Western Colorado hasn’t been quite as involved in the passing attack this season but still has 36 receptions for 344 yards in 10 games.

He’s averaging well over 27.5 receiving yards per game and should see a bump to his 34.4 average with Stick at the helm of the offense. While he is having a down season by his standards, Ekeler has still had at least 28 receiving yards in six of 10 games this season.

This is an improved Raiders defense that sits 15th in EPA per play and 13th in EPA per dropback, but they have still allowed 401 receiving yards to RBs in 13 games — an average of 30.8 receiving yards per game.

When Stick entered the game last week against the Broncos, Ekeler was targeted five times in two quarters and finished with three receptions for 17 yards on passes thrown by the former North Dakota State quarterback. That trend should continue over four quarters against the Raiders and put Ekeler right around 30 receiving yards for the game.

Austin Ekeler prop: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)