The Justin Herbert era has begun in Los Angeles. Despite solid play from their new franchise quarterback, the Chargers are still looking for their first win with Herbert at the helm following their 38-31 loss against the Buccaneers last week.
The Saints are 2-2 following their Week 4 win versus Detroit and NFL betting odds have them installed as 7.5-point favorites at home on Monday night in Week 5.
Here are our best free NFL picks and predictions for the Chargers vs Saints in Monday Night Football action on October 11 (8:15 p.m. ET).
Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints betting preview
Weather
This game is scheduled to take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, the largest fixed dome structure in the world, so any inclement weather will play a minimal role.
While there were talks earlier in the week about this game possibly being moved to Indianapolis due to Hurricane Delta, more recent reports see that as unlikely. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chargers: Trai Turner G (Out), Bryan Bulaga OT (Out), Austin Ekeler RB (Out), Melvin Ingram DE (Out), Tyrod Taylor QB (Out), Mike Pouncey C (Out), Derwin James S (Out), Chris Harris CB (Out), Justin Jones DT (Out).
Saints: Michael Thomas WR (Out), Janoris Jenkins CB (Out), Kiko Alonso LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Saints are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Saints.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This is a tough betting line especially with how many key Saints starters are listed as questionable. Last year's NFL Offensive Player of the Year Michael Thomas is the biggest name but cornerback Marshon Lattimore is also an All-Pro, and Ryan Ramczyk might be the best offensive tackle in the league that hasn't been named to a Pro Bowl yet.
That said, the Chargers are one of the few teams in the league that are even worse off when it comes to injuries. Losing Derwin James, Chris Harris and Melvin Ingram for the year have been big blows to their defense. They will also be missing three starters on the O-line on Monday while all-purpose RB Austin Ekeler will be out until November.
Even without Thomas for most of the season, the Saints have averaged 30.8 points per game and are third in the league in third-down conversion rate. It might make more sense to wait until the injury situation clears up before betting this game, or buy this line down to New Orleans at -6.5, but we're still leaning towards the Saints at -7.5.
PREDICTION: New Orleans -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The 22-year-old Herbert might be winless after taking over for Tyrod Taylor in Week 2 but he's looked very comfortable slinging the ball. He's thrown for at least 290 yards in all three of his games and is coming off the best performance of his young career, completing 20 of 25 passes with three touchdowns against Tampa Bay.
That said, the Chargers still managed just 20 points against the Chiefs in Week 2 and 16 points versus the Panthers in Week 3. They'll also miss Ekeler big time. The fourth-year running back is easily the best ball-carrier on the Bolts squad and he's a massive factor in the passing game as well.
That will put a lot of pressure on Herbert to perform with what could be a one-dimensional attack against a Saints defensive front that can get after opposing QBs. Despite surrendering 30.8 points per game the Saints defense looks strong on paper and has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in the NFL.
With the Chargers going 3-1 to the Under this season and the Saints cashing the Under in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record, take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 51 (-110)
Prop Bet
The Saints offense has gotten off to fast starts this year, leading the league with 19.8 first-half points per game. The Chargers average 12.8 first-half points per game and are coming off a game where they scored 24 points in the first half against the Buccaneers.
When it comes to the second half of games, the Chargers rank near the bottom of the league with just 8 ppg and New Orleans hasn't been much better putting up just 11 ppg during the final 30 minutes.
Expect these offenses to get off to quick starts before cooling off in the second half.
PREDICTION: Highest scoring half - First Half (-115)
Chargers vs Saints betting card
- New Orleans -7.5 (-110)
- Under 51 (-110)
- Highest scoring half - First Half (-115)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Chargers vs. Saints picks, you could win $58.14 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
