The National Football League playoffs kick off on Saturday when the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans meet in an AFC Wild Card showdown.
The Chargers come in winners of eight of their last 10 games, while the Texans lost their last four games against teams that made the playoffs. There are plenty of intriguing NFL picks to make in this game, and we’ve keyed on a few in particular that provide solid value in the player prop markets.
Here are our three best Chargers vs Texans player prop picks for Saturday’s game.
Chargers vs Texans props
- CJ Stroud Under 231.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at BetMGM)
- Ladd McConkey 75+ receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Chargers vs Texans props
Prop bet #1: CJ Stroud Under 231.5 passing yards
CJ Stroud was sacked 52 times this season, and that’s a big reason why I expect the Houston Texans quarterback to go below his passing total on Saturday. No other AFC quarterback was taken down more on pass plays this year, with the Texans having the eighth-worst sack rate allowed.
Now he’s facing a Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in sack rate. The likes of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa will cause him problems from the opening snap, and they will punish an offensive line ranked 22nd in pass-block win rate per PFF.
Making matters worse for Stroud, his only reliable targets in the passing game will be Nico Collins and Joe Mixon. The absence of Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs will make things much easier for a Charger defense ranked second in opponent yards per completion and seventh in passing yards allowed per game.
The latter half of the season for Stroud showed a fair amount of regression, and in a Week 17 defeat to Baltimore, he managed just 185 passing yards while his offense failed to score a single point. He’s going to struggle again under pressure and will not get to the 230-yard mark.
Prop bet #2: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Houston’s defense ranks fifth in the NFL in opponent yards per pass, but that number is quite misleading. The Texans played six times against the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans — all three of whom rank in the bottom half of the league in that metric.
And in their last three games, the Texans have allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt of any team in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes threw for 260 yards and a touchdown, while running for another one, while Lamar Jackson threw for 168 yards and two scores on just 15 pass attempts.
Justin Herbert has thrown for 23 touchdowns on the season, and nine of those have come in the past four games. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in each of those contests, having done so in just four of his first 13 starts. And with J.K. Dobbins questionable for Saturday’s game, he may have to take to the air quite a bit.
The Texans rank 27th on the season in opponent red zone touchdown rate and have conceded the third-most passing touchdowns in the league. Herbert has completed 21+ throws in five straight games and attempted 30+ in seven of his last eight. A similar volume here will see him connect on at least two scoring tosses.
Prop bet #3: Ladd McConkey 75+ receiving yards
Quentin Johnston caught 13 passes last week for 186 yards. But that was the coaching staff trying to force him the ball to build his confidence after a season of numerous drops.
When Herbert needs a big play, he turns to Ladd McConkey. McConkey has at least 83 receiving yards in each of his last three games and in six of his last seven. I think he’s a lock to get to 80 yet again, but we’ll stick to his alternate total of 75 or more.
Houston’s secondary has struggled with high-volume, high-production receivers down the stretch. They allowed 75 receiving yards last week to Calvin Ridley, while Jacksonville saw both Brian Thomas Jr and Parker Washington eclipse that number as well against the Texans.
Herbert has thrown 504 pass attempts this season, and 22.2% of those have gone the way of McConkey. He’s caught at least five passes in his last seven games, and I just can’t see this inconsistent Houston secondary finding a way to lock him down.
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