Get out the name tags in the Windy City. The Chicago Bears have plenty of new faces all over the place, including an overhaul in the front office and sideline where Matt Eberflus takes over as head coach.
Chicago’s offensive and defensive playbooks also get a makeover with new coordinators, systems, and talent. The Bears’ NFL odds project a long hard season with so much of the team’s success tied to second-year quarterback Justin Fields, who in turn has his success tied to a shoddy offensive line.
Realistically, Chicago’s benchmark in the NFC North is keeping pace with Detroit. So, you can see how bad it is for the Bears. Here’s our Chicago Bears 2022 NFL betting preview.
Chicago Bears futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +15,000 |
| To win conference | +6,500 |
| To win division | +1,400 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6.5 (Under -150) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +400 / No -500 |
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 Wins -150
For those really down on the Bears, you can also get Under 6 wins at +110, and no one would blame you. If any team is in full restoration mode in 2022, it’s Chicago.
From a new GM to a slew of new coaches and coordinators – none of which have any NFL head coaching experience – the franchise has flushed the floaters of Matty Nagy’s tenure down the tubes. Last year’s team won six games versus the third-toughest strength of schedule in 2021, two of which came against the Lions.
This year’s overall schedule makes it easier with the 29th-ranked SOS and sits 28th in my QB SOS. That said, this team could be in tank mode by Halloween with one of the roughest starts to 2022 and the lookahead lines setting Chicago as a favorite in just 2.5 games (depending on where you bet).
Chicago Bears betting overview
What will win bets: Ice-cold inflated lines
As hinted at above (and dissected below), Chicago has a very steep climb in the first two months of the season. That sked could compound the obvious growing pains this team will undergo as it adjusts to all the new personnel and schemes.
That said, the winter months could see value bubble up for the Bears, who play four of their final five games in chilly Soldier Field and get a bye in Week 14. If Chicago stinks as much as oddsmakers think, those late-season lines will be as puffed up as the winter coats in the Windy City.
What will lose bets: Defensive depth
The cons stack up for Bears backers in 2022. The coaching revamp with all the new systems and a big flip in personnel strip any continuity from last season. Chicago is starting from scratch, including a move to the 4-3 from the 3-4 defense, but is thin on talent to fit those schemes.
Eberflus and new defensive coordinator Alan Williams come over from Indianapolis, which ranked high in defensive metrics the past few seasons. But part of that success came with an assist from a plodding offense that ran the ball and chewed up possession ever since Andrew Luck retired. The Bears simply don’t have the same talent in the run game to do the same for Eberflus.
And that’s just one of the deep-dish issues in Chicago this season.
Chicago Bears game-by-game odds
The Bears’ overall SOS ranks among the weakest in the NFL, with the likes of Detroit (twice), Houston, both New York teams, and Atlanta on the calendar. Despite those bottom-tier foes, Chicago’s lookahead lines project at best 2.5 wins (Week 11 at Atlanta from PK to +1) with seven other contests pegged at +3 or shorter.
Chicago plays five of its first eight away from home and has some sticky schedule spots in the season's first two months. The Bears were 3-6 SU and ATS as visitors last season, regressing from a sound road record in the first three years under Nagy (14-10 SU on road).
Bad teams are tough to handicap, even for oddsmakers, and Chicago has notable line discrepancy from book to book: none more evident than Week 13 home stand with the Packers. This lookahead line ranges from Bears +4 to +7 across the mainstream market.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. San Francisco | +6.5 | 42 |
| 2 | @ Green Bay | +10 | 46 |
| 3 | vs. Houston | -3.5 | 42.5 |
| 4 | @ N.Y. Giants | +3 | 43.5 |
| 5 | @ Minnesota | +6 | 46.5 |
| 6 | vs. Washington | +2.5 | 44.5 |
| 7 | @ New England | +6.5 | 42.5 |
| 8 | @ Dallas | +7.5 | 47.5 |
| 9 | vs. Miami | +3 | 43.5 |
| 10 | vs. Detroit | -2.5 | 43.5 |
| 11 | @ Atlanta | +1 | 46 |
| 12 | @ N.Y. Jets | +2.5 | 44 |
| 13 | vs. Green Bay | +7 | 46.5 |
| 14 | BYE | ||
| 15 | vs. Philadelphia | +3 | 43.5 |
| 16 | vs. Buffalo | +7.5 | 45.5 |
| 17 | @ Detroit | +1.5 | 44 |
| 18 | vs. Minnesota | +2.5 | 42 |
Chicago Bears Pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The Bears are a dark horse to have the first pick in the draft next season. Justin Fields is set up to fail due to a lack of weapons and a weak offensive line aside from Darnell Mooney.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Chicago Bears early season forecast
Any pain points with the fresh-look Bears will be on full display in the opening two weeks of action, thanks to run-ins with San Francisco and Green Bay.
Under Nagy, Chicago was a solid starter with an 8-4 SU record (6-6 ATS) in the first three weeks of play. Chicago opens 2022 at home, getting 6.5 points from the Trey Lance-led 49ers. This spread opened at Bears +6.5 and has stayed there all spring and summer, while the total bobbed between 42.5 and 41.5 points. The preseason showings from Lance and Fields will greatly impact these odds come August.
A trip to Lambeau Field for Sunday Night Football awaits the Bears (+10) in Week 2. Nagy won just once against the Packers during his time in the Windy City (1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS), including a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS count in Green Bay. Chicago gets a downshift in competition when Houston comes to Soldier Field in Week 3 — one of only two games in which the Bears are point spread chalk (-3 to -3.5).
Since 2018, Chicago is 22-8 as a favorite but has split those games against the spread (15-15 ATS). If you’re buying into the Bears, make sure you shop for the -3 as this team is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS as a fave of a field goal or shorter. Going beyond that (-3.5 or higher), Chicago went 10-12 ATS in that span.
Chicago Bears spot bet
Week 8: @ Dallas (+7.5)
The Bears play four of five games on the road between Week 4 and Week 8. They visit the Giants and Vikings in Weeks 4 and 5 and have a short week of prep for Washington at home on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, before traveling to New England for Monday Night Football in Week 7.
That leaves Chicago with a short week on back-to-back road games when it comes to AT&T Stadium to play Dallas in Week 8. The Cowboys will be coming off a home stand with Detroit in Week 7 and have a bye in Week 9. This spread is out there between Bears +7 and +7.5 but could be flirting with double digits by the time we get to October 30.
Chicago Bears totals tip
Chicago’s lookahead lines feature only six games with totals of more than 45 points, with bookies bracing for transition troubles to new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. He’s installing a San Fran-inspired short zone block attack that will utilize pre-snap motion and play-action to keep defenses guessing.
The Bears have some key pieces, with Fields’ mobility, RB David Montgomery, speedster Darnell Mooney, and TE Cole Kmet. But without a reliable offensive line, none of this matters. The Bears' defense focused on fortifying the secondary through the draft and free agency.
Eberflus likes to run a lot of nickel sets which could help Chicago keep everything in front of it. The Bears parted ways with primary pass rushers, so rivals may just pick apart this stop unit underneath with short hits. In closing, those totals are short for a reason.
Star power: Justin Fields props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Most Passing Yards | +10,000 |
| Most Passing TDs | +10,000 |
| Rushing TD Total | +3.5 (Over -140) |
| Rushing Yards Total | 525.5 (Over -115) |
| Passing TD Total | 18.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing Yards Total | +3,350.5 (Under -130) |
Best prop: Over 3.5 rushing touchdowns (-140)
Getsy’s offense is set up to unleash Justin Fields’ ability to run with the football. That’s something he could end up doing a lot, considering the lack of improvements to an offensive line that allowed him to be sacked 36 times and pressured on more than 27% of dropbacks in 2021.
That makes Fields’ rushing yards total a tempting Over (he rushed for 420 yards in 12 games last year). However, I’m wary of his durability if he takes a ton of hits.
Instead, I like him to scramble for four or more touchdowns. He had two rushing scores in his rookie year, and the Bears can’t be any worse than their 2021 red zone TD percentage of 47.92%.
Put that up against some bad defensive foes, and Fields will find the end zone with his legs more than a few times in 2022.
Chicago Bears trend to know
A positive sign for Chicago in this post-Nagy era would be holding its own in the NFC North. The Bears have been beaten up by their divisional foes the past three seasons, going just 2-4 SU in divisional play in 2021 and 8-10 SU since 2019.
Toss a point spread into the mix, and things get even worse. Chicago is a dismal 5-13 ATS versus the NFC North the previous three seasons — covering only 28% of the time, and is pegged to finish dead last in the division in 2022 (which hasn’t happened since 2017).
Bears NFC North Games
- Week 2 @ Green Bay (+10)
- Week 5 @ Minnesota (+6.5)
- Week 10 vs. Detroit (-2.5)
- Week 13 vs. Green Bay (+7)
- Week 17 @ Detroit (+1.5)
- Week 18 vs. Minnesota (+2.5)
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