Sunday should be another fun day of NFL action, and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers has to be the best game on the Week 7 slate. What better way to end the afternoon than a contest between two teams with gobs of offensive talent and a 48.5-point total?
Will Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have big nights against one of the best defenses in the game, or will 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel steal the spotlight away from the dynamic duo?
Don’t miss our NFL prop picks for the Chiefs vs. 49ers.
Chiefs vs 49ers prop picks
- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TD passes
- Travis Kelce Over 0.5 TD receptions
- Deebo Samuel Over 0.5 TD receptions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs vs 49ers Week 7 props
Mahomes’ the man
Patrick Mahomes threw for 338 yards with a pair of TD passes against the fifth-ranked Buffalo passing defense in the Chiefs' home loss to Buffalo. I expect the Chiefs' quarterback to repeatedly fire away and attack the 49ers passing defense in Week 7.
Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdown passes in three of his last six games and has slung three-plus scoring strikes in 31 games dating back to 2018. The star QB has played one game vs. the 49ers and threw for 318 yards and three TD passes in 2018. He’ll have an excellent opportunity to do it again Sunday.
Mahomes and Josh Allen share the league lead with 17 TD passes, and the Chiefs' gunslinger faces a stiff test Sunday. The 49ers are allowing less than a TD pass per game, but Falcons' QB Marcus Mariota threw a pair against the Niners last week.
It isn’t unreasonable to believe Mahomes will sling multiple in this spot.
Patrick Mahomes Prop: Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+165)
Kelce corrals a TD
If Mahomes is going to throw three touchdowns, then it's likely Travis Kelce will corral in one of those TDs. Kelce leads the league in TD receptions and tops the Chiefs in multiple receiving categories.
Since 2018, he and Mahomes have hooked up for 42 scoring strikes, and the veteran TE has at least one TD reception in four of their six contests this season.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts was on the receiving end of one last week against San Francisco, and there’s an excellent chance that Kelce does the same thing this week, especially after failing to do so in last week's loss to Buffalo.
Travis Kelce Prop: Over 0.5 touchdown receptions (-101)
It’s Deebo time
The 48.5 total is a considerable number, and since the oddsmakers expect some scoring, who better to make a big play than 49ers' wide receiver Deebo Samuel?
Samuel leads the 49ers in multiple receiving categories and has recorded a TD reception in two of his past three games. The San Francisco wideout averages roughly eight targets per game, and this could be a great play against a Chiefs' passing defense allowing a league-worst 2.5 passing TDs per outing.
I love the price and the likelihood of Samuel catching a TD in what should be a high-scoring affair against a defense allowing the WR position to score 1.5 TD passes per game.
Deebo Samuel Prop: Over 0.5 touchdown receptions (+199)
