Chiefs vs Bills Divisional Round Player Props and NFL Bets: Stefon Shrinks Under Bright Lights

It's been a quiet second half of the season for Stefon Diggs. Can he break out of his funk vs. the Chiefs as they visit the Bills for a highly-anticipated Divisional Round clash? Our NFL betting picks are skeptical.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Jan 21, 2024 • 16:32 ET • 4 min read

The Chiefs and Bills took care of business last weekend, both securing convincing wins in the opening round of the playoffs. Now they'll face off in the Divisional Round odds, and for the first time in the playoffs since their electrifying overtime faceoff two years ago in this same round.

Can Josh Allen & Co. come out with a win this time from the comfort of Highmark Stadium? Or will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs spoil the Bills' fun once again?

Continue reading for free NFL picks in the NFL player props and analysis of the NFL odds for the Chiefs vs. Bills Divisional Round matchup on Sunday, January 21.

Be sure also to check out our Chiefs vs. Bills betting picks and spotlight picks for Patrick Mahomes odds!

Chiefs vs Bills Divisional Round props

Picks made on January 21 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Chiefs vs Bills props

Prop bet #1: Pacheco makes an impact

When the Bills and Chiefs faced earlier this year in December, Isiah Pacheco was sidelined with an injury and arguably could have been the difference in what was eventually a three-point loss for the Chiefs.

The former seventh-round pick has always been an intense and proficient runner, but he has also found himself getting more involved in the Chiefs' passing attack as the season has progressed. In his last four regular season games, Pacheco logged 20 targets and averaged 20.5 receiving yards per game. 

He will face off against a Bills defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, providing him ample opportunity to keep producing through his receiving skills.

Isiah Pacheco prop: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-130 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available

Prop bet #2: Diggs deeper

Stefon Diggs has had a disappointing year by his standards, logging a four-year low in receiving yards, touchdowns, and yards per reception. This came despite the nine-year veteran starting off the year with five 100+ yard games in his first six games.

Since then, he has averaged just 51.2 receiving yards per game and has failed to eclipse his yardage prop total for Sunday in all but four of the twelve games during that time. He's done so just once in his last six games.

The matchup isn't friendly to the Stefon Diggs odds either, with the Chiefs allowing the fourth-fewest yards to opposing wide receivers this year - including the 24 yards on 11 targets they allowed to Diggs in their December 10 matchup.

Stefon Diggs prop: Under 62.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Reliable Rice

The second-round rookie receiver out of SMU has taken the league by storm as of late, having eclipsed 60 yards in six of his last seven games.

That includes his performance last week in his first ever playoff game, racking up eight receptions for a whopping 130 yards and a touchdown just one week after going for five receptions and 127 yards in Week 18.

It was coincidentally in Week 14 against the Bills that Andy Reid and the coaching staff began to trust Rice more, logging his first 70%+ snap share on the season and never once dipping below that mark after.

I like the Rashee Rice odds for him to continue producing for the Chiefs as they look his way more and more.

Rashee Rice prop: Over 67.5 receiving yards (-125 at DraftKings)

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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