The Buffalo Bills’ new stadium is currently under construction and will be ready for the 2026 season. And nowhere in those blueprints are there plans for a roof on the new Highmark Stadium.
Hosting home games in the playoffs is a big advantage for the Bills, who will welcome the winter weather once again this weekend when the rival Kansas City Chiefs come to Orchard Park to close out the NFL Divisional Round odds slate.
While Sunday night’s forecast is much tamer than the weather in Western New York this past weekend, the elements could still impact the NFL odds and outcomes for those betting markets.
I look to the skies for my Chiefs vs. Bills weather report for Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff to help you get a better grasp of the situation before making your NFL picks.
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Chiefs vs Bills Weather
OK, you’re wondering about the snow.
As of right now, extended forecasts have this AFC Divisional Round rivalry dancing between the snow bands, with white stuff halting by Saturday afternoon and skies relatively clear until late Monday night.
That said, lake-effect snow is unpredictable. Lake Erie is unseasonably warm with far less ice coverage than normal for this time of year. If winds pick up and hit the lake just right, you have a wall of snow suddenly showing up.
And speaking of winds, these could be the most disruptive element Sunday night. Models range from sustained winds of 9 mph, with gusts up to 16 mph around kickoff, to sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts as strong as 30 mph, blowing SW from sideline to sideline at Highmark Stadium (FYI: same direction as winds this past week which produced lake effect blizzard).
Those breezes will bring down the temperature as well. Game-time temps will be between 15 and 20 degrees with the wind chill taking the “feel like” thermometer down to as low as -2. The cold doesn’t give either team an edge, as the Kansas City Chiefs just hosted the Dolphins in Antarctica and the Buffalo Bills played Pittsburgh in similar conditions as this weekend’s forecast.
Those winds, however, could toy with any deeper passes, push punts around, and make special teams think long and hard about attempting any longer field goals.
Buffalo’s playbook is far more influenced by the wind, based on the Bills’ dependency on the deep ball. Josh Allen ranked tops in the league in total air yards and intended air yards and finished Top 10 in yards per attempt (7.4). I will note, Allen can throw into the wind better than any QB I’ve ever seen.
Kansas City’s attack is a little more compact. The Chiefs are a bigger proponent of YAC — yards after the catch — and Patrick Mahomes has played within this quicker-hitting offense the past two seasons, averaging the third-fewest intended air yards per attempt (6.5) in the league.
As for the ground games, the Bills’ rushing attack has been rolling in the late stages of the season. Buffalo rushed for 179 yards on 34 attempts in the Wild Card win over the Steelers (74 of those gains did belong to Allen) and ranks No. 4 in EPA per run and No. 3 in success rate per carry since Week 15.
The Chiefs ran just okay in the win over the Dolphins, chewing up 147 yards on 34 carries (41 yards from Mahomes) but weren’t nearly as efficient on the ground as Buffalo in those closing weeks of the schedule. They finished 30th in EPA per run and 32nd in success rate in the final four games.
Kansas City’s defense struggled to slow down the ground game — finishing 32nd in run stop win rate at ESPN and 28th in EPA allowed per handoff. But, the Chiefs did tighten the bolts over the last five games, improving to No. 9 in that advanced metric since Week 15.
The Bills’ run stop has ranked in the back third of the league most of the season. Buffalo finished 15th in run stop win rate and allows the fifth most yards per carry (4.6) in the land. They gave up just that against Pittsburgh and sit 22nd in EPA allowed per run over the last five outings — including the Wild Card Round.
That brings us to special teams, where it should be noted Bills punter Sam Martin played through a hamstring injury on Monday (he’ll never have to buy a drink in Buffalo again) and he’s on a short week to heal up.
Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass was shaky against the Steelers, going just 1-for-3 on field goal attempts despite the winds not being that strong Monday night. That’s par for the course for Bass, who’s made less than 83% of this FGAs in the regular season (24-for-29).
The Chiefs have a much more accurate leg in kicker Harrison Butker. He was a perfect 4 of 4 on FGAs in the win against Miami, considering his long was only 32 yards, and he finished the regular season 33-for-35 (94.3%) including a perfect 12-for-12 on attempts of 40+ yards.
This game could very well be decided by a field goal considering the opening spread bounced between -2 and -3 on Monday night, with the market settling at Bills -2.5 as of this writing. The total is taking action between 45.5 and 46 points.
All things considered, the current extended forecast calls for a relatively clean game for upstate New York at this time of the year. Bettors should keep a close eye on those wind speeds as the week goes on and live in fear of potential lake-effect snow if conditions are right.
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