The Denver Broncos return home on a two-game winning run when they host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7.
The Broncos picked up road wins over the hapless Jets and COVID-impacted Patriots, which isn’t enough to sway the oddsmakers, with Denver as a 9-point NFL betting underdog this Sunday. The Chiefs rebounded from a Week 5 loss to Las Vegas with a statement win at Buffalo on Monday night.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Broncos on October 25.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos betting preview
Weather
The forecast is Denver has a winter storm warning with 6 to 9 inches of snow expected to fall in the area. Game-time temperatures will dip to the mid-teens with winds blowing north up to 11 mph and there is a 70 percent chance of snow for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Find out how to best handicap snow when placing your football bets here. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Taco Charlton DE (Out), Kelechi Osemele G (Out), Mitchell Schwartz T (Out), Alex Okafor DE (Out), Sammy Watkins WR (Out), Darwin Thompson RB (Out).
Broncos: Mark Barron LB (Out), Jeremiah Attaochu LB (Out), Jake Butt TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 13-3-1 in Broncos’ last 17 games versus AFC West rivals. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Broncos.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This spread opened Denver +9.5 and dropped to +9 with some early money on the home side. Beyond what the Broncos are tossing at them, Week 7 alone is a tough schedule spot for the Chiefs.
They’re playing on a short week due to their matchup last week with Buffalo being bumped from Thursday to Monday and travel up the mountain to the thin air at Mile High for their second straight road game. And to throw even more at K.C., the extended forecast is calling for temperatures to dip into the low teens and a 50 percent chance of snow with winds blowing around at 15 mph.
The Broncos’ winning ways come with an asterisk, knocking off the Jets on Thursday night back in Week 4 ahead of a schedule shuffle that kept the team out of action for 17 days before playing the Patriots on Sunday. New England’s COVID-19 outbreaks limited the team to two practices in two weeks, and it showed in an 18-12 win for Denver.
The Broncos have, however, found some teeth with the pass rush in that span. They’ve recorded 10 total sacks in those victories, including four on Cam Newton in Week 6. Denver’s defense feasted on a makeshift offensive line for the Patriots and could see another banged-up O-line from the Chiefs, who lost starting guard Kelechi Osemele to injury and may be without starting tackle Mitchell Schwartz for Sunday.
With Vic Fangio dialing up the blitz and Kansas City’s high-octane offense possibly slowed by the snow, it will be tough for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to post enough points to put this 9-point spread to bed. I do expect this to climb back toward 9.5 or even 10, so you may want to wait to pull the trigger on Denver if you’re backing the Broncos.
PREDICTION: Denver +9 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Snow can be a funny thing when it comes to betting totals. It can slow the passing game but make tracking down ball carriers a slippery task, leading to some bigger gains. This Over/Under opened 49.5 and has dropped to 48.5 points.
Kansas City has become a tough team to plan for with its return to the ground game, behind rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and newly-acquired RB Le’Veon Bell, who should make his K.C. debut on Sunday. Andy Reid’s offense has handed off on almost 47 percent of its snaps over the past three games, including 46 carries for a monster 245-yard performance against Buffalo.
Denver will dish out the runs too, and it looks like the Broncos will have the rushing combo of Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon back for this AFC West rivalry. With Gordon shelved due to strep throat last weekend, Lindsay broke off 101 yards on 23 carries versus the Patriots. Denver will lean on the ground game to not only take the pressure off QB Drew Lock, but also eat the football and chew up the TOP in order to ice Mahomes & Co.
Even in good weather, this Denver offense is challenged. It settled for six field goals against New England in Week 6, finishing the day 4 for 14 on third down and went 0 for 2 in the red zone. On the year, the Broncos have converted only 36 percent of their third-down tries and own a TD percentage of 40 inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Depending on game-time conditions, kicking could also be an issue for Brandon McManus.
PREDICTION: Under 48.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
The weather could shorten the Chiefs’ passing attack but Mahomes is also a weapon when running with the football: he’s rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns in 2020.
Given the increased blitz rate and sacks coming out of the Broncos defense, Mahomes may be on the run plenty in Week 7. He scrambled for 36 yards in the win over the Bills and topped out at 54 yards rushing against the Chargers in Week 2.
Denver has given up big rushing totals to QBs in recent outings, watching New York QB Sam Darnold burn up the turf for 84 yards and a touchdown in Week 4 and Newton break away for 76 yards and a score for the Pats in Week 6.
In what could be a chaotic game in the snow, we like Mahomes to take it upon himself to find the end zone in Week 7.
PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes touchdown score (+312)
Chiefs vs Broncos betting card
- Denver +9 (-110)
- Under 48.5 (-110)
- Patrick Mahomes touchdown score (+312)
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