After thumping the Houston Texans 34-20 to kick off the 2020 NFL season last Thursday, the Kansas City Chiefs set their sights onto the divisional rival Los Angeles Chargers, who lucked into a 16-13 win versus the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. This will be the Chargers' first game at their new home, SoFi Stadium.
For the second straight week, Kansas City has opened as a more-than-touchdown (-8.5) favorite. The Los Angeles Chargers covered as 2.5-point favorites last week but went 2-5 ATS versus the division a year ago, including 0-2 ATS against the Chiefs. The total sits just above the key number at 47.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers on September 20 (4:25 p.m. ET).
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers betting preview
Weather
Sunday’s game will be played indoors at the new SoFi Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Charvarius Ward DB (Out), Bashaud Breeland DB (Out), Alex Okafor DE (Out).
Chargers: Derwin James DB (Out), Mike Pouncey C (Out), Justin Jackson (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Kansas City is a 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight-up win. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Chargers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Chiefs will have a big advantage heading into Sunday’s game, as the reigning champs will have had nine days of rest after playing on Thursday last week. Kansas City went 3-1 SU with a rest advantage last year as head coach Andy Reid is a mastermind when given more time (17-3 SU/14-6 ATS after a bye). Reid and the boys also owned the AFC West, going 6-0 SU and an impressive 5-0-1 ATS last season.
The Chiefs lost starting corner, Charvarius Ward, last week with a broken hand but rookie corner L’Jarius Sneed filled that role with no problems making two tackles, two passes defended and an interception. This defense could make things difficult for the Chargers’ new QB Tyrod Taylor, who managed just 208 yards on 16-of-30 passing versus a Cincinnati pass defense that finished 2019 as the third-worst unit. Taylor could also be missing key pieces of his offensive line as center Mike Pouncey and guard Trai Turner missed Week 1 and aren't guaranteed to suit up this week.
The Chiefs are a great team, but they have also been great to bettors as they are 14-5-1 ATS over their last 20 games, and these haven’t been small spreads either.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Chiefs only needed 202 yards of passing to get past the Texans in Week 1. Their large early advantage led to a run-heavy game script against a team that was a bottom-five unit in yards per rush attempt allowed in 2019. This week, we could see another run-first approach against the Chargers after a stellar debut from rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH logged 25 carries last week for 138 yards and one touchdown.
Even without safety Derwin James, the Chargers still have an above-average secondary, but it's near the top of the league when James is healthy. If KC gets up early, they could avoid that secondary and lean on their running game against a Chargers defense that had the 25th-worst DVOA rush defense a year ago.
Taylor and the L.A. offense only managed one TD and averaged 5.1 yards per play against the Bengals, who were a bottom-4 defense a year ago. The KC Secondary held Deshaun Watson to 256 yards on 20-of-32 passing, with a big chunk of those yards coming in catch-up mode. The KC defense also held the Texans scoreless for a 45-minute stretch in Week 1.
KC could be keeping their cornerstone out of danger early in the season and feature Edwards-Helaire while he is hot, making 49 points too many to take.
PREDICTION: Under 49 (-110)
Player prop pick
You can’t always bet on the best player in football, but fading Patrick Mahomes is not an easy pill to swallow. Last year, Mahomes & Co. handled the Chargers in two late-season games, going 2-0 SU. In those contests, Mahomes didn’t throw for over 185 yards in either game, as his career 214 passing yards per game against the Chargers is the lowest total against any team by nearly 30 yards.
One standout from Kansas City’s Week 1 game was that of Mahomes’ 32 throws, only three of them were deeper than 10 yards. The QB also was one of the quickest at getting the ball out in Week 1, which may signal an emphasis on short and quick passes.
With the emergence of Edwards-Helaire, Andy Reid would be smart to keep his best shot at a repeat healthy early in the season, especially with such an awkward lead up to the regular season. It could be a sweaty bet with all the potential for big TDs, but we are taking the Under on Mahomes’ passing total and this divisional matchup looks like a great spot to exploit a high total.
PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes Under 284.5 passing yards (-120)
Chiefs vs Chargers betting card
- Kansas City -8.5 (-110)
- Under 49 (-110)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 284.5 passing yards (-120)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Chiefs vs. Chargers picks, you could win $56.81 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
