It’s another prime-time slot for Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons, but the joy of Monday’s dramatic late win could be short-lived with the Kansas City Chiefs in town tonight.
Though the Chiefs are somewhat fortunate to be entering with a 2-0 record, I still think they'll come out on top here as Patrick Mahomes is a monster in dome games.
I'm also looking at player prop markets concerning running backs Bijan Robinson and Samaje Perine for my favorite Chiefs vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks on September 22.
Chiefs vs Falcons SNF predictions
- Chiefs -3 (-115 at bet365)
- Under 46.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Robinson Over 107.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
- Perine anytime touchdown (+150 at bet365)
Chiefs vs Falcons SNF best bets
Chiefs +3
When you combine the speed of the Kansas City Chiefs receivers and a short week of preparation for the Atlanta Falcons, it’s a recipe for a visitors’ edge in this matchup.
The Chiefs have won eight games in a row, covering the spread in seven straight contests before the ATS setback against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend, and I’m comfortable laying the points on a line that I’d expected to creep back north of -3.
Sure, the visitors have backfield issues to navigate, but I still see them moving the chains and it’s hardly a bad thing if the ball ends up in Patrick Mahomes’ hands more often.
Mahomes is 11-0 in true dome games and, though the roof will be open at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, I expect the Falcons to struggle to contain Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy on this surface.
While Kirk Cousins’ final drive against the Philadelphia Eagles on MNF flipped the narrative, I’m also wary of his lack of mobility against Kansas City’s defensive playmakers.
Atlanta has only scored 32 total points so far this season, and some of the hosts’ flaws could be under a brighter spotlight tonight.
Under 46.5
When you consider that the Falcons are still finding their groove offensively and the Chiefs are down to veteran Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele in the backfield, this line feels a fraction too high.
The Under is 4-2 in Atlanta’s past six contests, including both games so far this season, and the hosts’ best hope here is to run the clock down with long, run-heavy drives.
That could put a cap on explosive plays, even with the potential for a jump in Mahomes’ pass attempts (he had just 25 against Cincinnati).
The Kansas City passing game just hasn’t looked quite as slick through the first two weeks. Travis Kelce only had one catch in Week 2 while Worthy came back to earth after his dynamic performance in the season opener.
I’m wagering on this matchup being a slow burner, with the Falcons challenging Mahomes to be patient on underneath throws, and I have my doubts about Atlanta getting to 20 points against a physical Chiefs defense.
Bijan Robinson Over 107.5 rushing + receiving yards
Atlanta is finally taking the handbrake off and giving Bijan Robinson the keys to the offense in his second season. I expect a similar game script on SNF, with the Falcons using him early and often as a rusher and receiver.
Robinson has breezed past this total in both games this season, including 122 yards from scrimmage against the Eagles on Monday.
That should continue here, with Cousins working his way back to full sharpness and Drake London likely to be shadowed by Trent McDuffie.
In addition to steady rushing opportunities, Robinson has had five targets in each contest and his big-play ability means he could take a chunk out of this total on a single snap.
Kansas City held firm against the run against the Bengals’ running backs, but Robinson should be encouraged by the way that Lamar Jackson’s elusive running style gave the Chiefs fits in Week 1.
In a sense, this is a volume play. It would be no surprise to see Robinson finish with more than 20 touches tonight, and I see him making those count to hit this Over.
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Samaje Perine anytime touchdown
While Steele is the likeliest choice for early-down work for Kansas City, Perine’s know-how and receiving skills should earn him a big uptick in snaps tonight, particularly after the Chiefs chose not to elevate Kareem Hunt from the practice squad for SNF.
Perine is going to be especially valuable for Mahomes on passing downs. He excels in pass protection and is capable of leaking out of the backfield as an escape valve.
Kelce and Rice will surely draw a crowd in the red zone, but Perine’s versatility should mean he’s on the field in the big moments. I’m picking him to make one of those chances count.
Perine had four receiving touchdowns in 2022 with Cincinnati, and he’s been around Kansas City long enough this year to earn Mahomes’ trust in the red zone. Despite a minimal role in Week 2, I’m counting on Perine to deliver here.
Chiefs vs Falcons odds
Chiefs vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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