Chiefs vs Falcons SNF Prop Bets: Run Bijan, Run

Prop bet #1: Patrick Mahomes Over 264.5 passing yards

-120 at bet365

There are plenty of questions surrounding this Kansas City Chiefs backfield and how they'll handle carries with Isiah Pacheco sidelined for the next 6-8 weeks. Undrafted rookie Carson Steele is the next man up after logging seven carries for 24 yards and a fumble last week. Veteran Samaje Perine will also get snaps but both players lack explosiveness and neither seems capable of being a true lead back. 

That should put a greater burden on Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs passing game to get going. Mahomes struggled last week, completing 18 of 25 passes for just 151 yards against the Bengals. However, keep in mind that he went 20-of-28 for 291 yards despite three drops from his receivers in Week 1 against a strong Ravens stop unit. 

Oddsmakers expect a significantly higher pass rate from the Chiefs this week, installing the O/U on Mahomes pass attempts at 35.5, but his passing yards total has stayed a modest 264.5. Mahomes has historically thrived in prime-time spots and he also tends to put up better passing numbers inside domes.

The Atlanta Falcons have some talented players in their secondary but they don't generate much pressure, which should give Mahomes plenty of time to find open receivers.

Prop bet #2: Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 rushing yards

-110 at bet365

We know the recipe to beat the Chiefs. Don't blitz Mahomes and keep him off the field by controlling the clock and running the ball. That should mean plenty of carries for Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 976 yards and 4.6 yards per rush attempt as a rookie last year. 

Robinson was limited to 68 yards in Week 1 but he still made 18 carries, which was a good sign for his success moving forward. He was more efficient in last week's upset win against the Eagles, rumbling for 97 yards on 14 carries.

Now he faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 18th in the league with 129.5 rushing yards allowed per game and 21st with 4.8 yards allowed per carry. The analytics have been even worse for the Chiefs, who are 29th in defensive rush EPA and 32nd in defensive rush success rate.

Prop bet #3: Kirk Cousins Under 32.5 pass attempts

-120 at bet365

Piggy-backing off Robinson, I don't expect Kirk Cousins to air it out too much. This line has come down from Falcons +4.5 to +3 and with K.C. often struggling to separate in the first half, we likely won't see a negative game script from the Falcons. Taking the Under on pass attempts on quarterbacks across the league has been highly profitable to start this season with offenses running the ball at significantly higher rates than in recent years. 

Last year, the Falcons were fourth in the league in rushing play percentage (47.8%) and despite adding a pocket passer in Cousins, that number is only slightly lower at 46.3%. Cousins threw just 26 passes in Week 1 and finished Week 2 with 29 pass attempts despite throwing six passes in the final two minutes in desperation mode.

Expect the Falcons to lean on their ground game against a weak Chiefs run defense, which will mean fewer pass attempts from Cousins.