The Kansas City Chiefs keep finding ways to win despite not being as strong on offense as we expected. Now, they’re set to deploy DeAndre Hopkins at wideout after a trade this week, taking aim at a weak Las Vegas Raiders team.
Read our Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions below to find out if Las Vegas can keep pace against one of the best defenses in the league. Read more in my NFL picks for this 4:25 p.m. ET CBS kickoff on Sunday, October 27, 2024.
Chiefs vs Raiders prediction
My best bet
Chiefs -9 (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs have begun the year a perfect 6-0 thanks to their defense. They rank fourth in overall DVOA on that side, rising up from eighth last week and doing their best work against the pass.
Kansas City ranks fourth rushing the passer according to Pro Football Focus and will be taking aim here at a Las Vegas Raiders team that's been shockingly good in pass protection, enduring another brutal season at quarterback.
Garder Minshew was usurped under center by Aidan O’Connell, only to return when his competitor for the job broke his hand last week.
He proceeded to throw the game away with three interceptions and now leads the league with eight — five of which have come in his last two games. He’s still completed a decent amount of passing attempts, but this team has failed to move the ball downfield.
The Chiefs have been excellent in coverage, so they shouldn’t mind much if they are forced by this line to give Minshew time to throw, and they rank 12th in interception rate to boot. Given this team just signed Desmond Ridder off the Cardinals’ practice squad, too, things have the potential to get out of hand.
Kansas City should take another step forward on offense with the addition of Hopkins, and while this Raiders defense does have talent, its pass rush has lacked quality, with Maxx Crosby still working his way to full health and the team ranking dead last in coverage, according to PFF.
This is a crooked line, particularly in a divisional matchup which always seems to haunt Kansas City, but I don’t see anything with this version of the Raiders that suggests this game will be anywhere close.
Chiefs vs Raiders same-game parlay
Chiefs -9
Gardner Minshew Under 199.5 passing yuards
Kareem Hunt 75+ rushing yards
Minshew has now gone three straight games without throwing for 200 yards, and while he came off the bench last week, he still managed to throw the ball a whopping 34 times.
Kansas City ranks seventh in DVOA against the pass and has allowed just 222 yards per game through the air this season to opposing quarterbacks. With two of the last three quarterbacks to face the Chiefs failing to crack 200 yards and Minshew in danger of a quick hook if he starts slow, this is a great addition to the SGP.
I’m also a fan of Kareem Hunt, who should fit the game script quite well if you believe this will be as one-sided as I do. He’s now the undoubted top option in the backfield, playing roughly 64% of the snaps in the team’s last two games, and while he’s averaged a pedestrian 3.95 yards per carry this season, he’s still carried the ball a whopping 49 times across the Chiefs’ last two games.
I’m comfortable going up to 75 yards here — a number he’s hit in his last two games — given he’s up against a defense ranked 27th in DVOA against the run and will be running all afternoon long.
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Chiefs vs Raiders odds
Chiefs vs Raiders live odds
Chiefs vs Raiders opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -10.5 | Las Vegas +10.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -650 | Las Vegas +350
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Chiefs vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread almost instantly moved to 10 points, and after a quick bounce between 9.5 and 10 this line has moved steadily in one direction, down to -9 as of Saturday.
- The Chiefs have attracted 78% of the bets and 71% of the money wagered on the spread.
- There’s been little movement in the total, which quickly dropped from 42.5 to 41.5 before settling there for the duration of the week.
- The Over has accounted for 68% of the tickets and 74% of the handle.
Chiefs vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Chiefs have only cashed the first-quarter moneyline in six of their last 21 games for -10.05 units and a -30% ROI. . Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Raiders.
Chiefs vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Chiefs vs Raiders latest injuries
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