Chiefs vs Raiders SNF Prop Bets: Darrel Into the End Zone

Sunday night brings us a classic AFC West showdown as Patrick Mahomes brings his struggles to the Death Star as the Las Vegas Raiders play host to the Kansas City Chiefs in what could be a potential shootout. 

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Raiders.

Chiefs vs Raiders prop picks

• Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
• Darrel Williams anytime TD
• Hunter Renfrow Over 5.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Chiefs vs Raiders SNF props

Sweet Mahomes interception

Patrick Mahomes’ season struggles are common NFL knowledge heading into Week 10. He has thrown a pass to the other team in seven of his last eight games and has a 6:6 TD/INT ratio over his last five games. His interception prop was cashing at plus money each game from Weeks 2 through 8 and Chiefs' quarterback has no intention to stop taking shots.

Mahomes told the media, “Taking those shots during the game, even if they’re not connecting, it kind of puts a little bit of a fear into the defense to know they can’t start coming up; they can’t start jumping some of our routes.” He’s right, but his decision-making ability has been piss-poor of late and he now faces a Raiders defense that sits 12th in success rate, has three picks over its last three games, and picked off Mahomes in each meeting last season. 

Mahomes’ INT price is -110 across the board which is exactly where it should be. For whatever reason, this is not the same QB from last season and ever since the Super Bowl in February, Mahomes has looked like a midtier QB who forces too many passes and his unorthodox style is catching up to him. 

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-110 at bet365)

Darrel the playing field

Andy Reid stated Friday that it's likely a stretch for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to suit up this week. Edwards-Helaire practiced this week but it looks like it could be Darrel Williams’ backfield again Sunday night.

Williams has been averaging over 18 touches per game and faces a defense that is 19th in success rate versus the run. The Raiders are also a tough team to pass against and allow the second-lowest yards per pass at 5.9 yards, and that number moves to a league-best 5.6 yards per pass at home. 

Kansas City runs the ball at a bottom-10 rate but Williams has been dominating rushing snaps, taking 58 of the team’s 75 RB carries over the last four weeks. Williams has reached 40 rushing yards in each game he’s seen at least 10 carries.

Williams’ rushing total opened at 51.5 yards but went OTB at many books with the uncertainty of Edwards-Helaire. We’d take this total up to 57.5 yards but we can still get his TD prop at +145 at BetMGM when other books have already moved to -105 with Edwards-Helaire likely out.

His TD price closed at +105 last week and although he doesn’t have a rushing touchdown since Week 6, he did take all six red zone snaps last week. Vegas allows 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game and 1.5 at home this season. 

With no rushing prop available yet, we’re pivoting and taking a mispriced TD from the running back on a favored team in a game that features a total of 52. We’d take this price to +115 but will be keeping an eye out for where his rushing prop opens up again.

PICK: Darrel Williams anytime TD (+145 BetMGM)

Hunter-gatherer

Vegas's offense is averaging nearly 400 yards per game on the season and even more, 424, over the last three weeks. This offense has not missed Jon Gruden one bit. Quarterback Derek Carr is averaging 320 passing yards over the last four weeks, which is second in the league.

On the other end of many of Carr’s passes has been Hunter Renfrow. The wide receiver, who got in a full practice Thursday, has seen at least eight targets in four of his last five games and has 14 catches over the Raiders’ last two games. He averages just 10 yards per catch and has the lowest average depth of target out of all the Raiders' receivers, at 6.3, but he is a possession receiver, which has us looking at his reception total rather than his yardage total.

The 5-foot-10 slot receiver is four targets off the team lead and should be the second-most targeted pass-catcher behind tight end Darren Waller Sunday night. Renfrow’s reception total closed at 5.5 (-105 for the Over) last week and most books have it this week at 5.5 -115 for the Over or worse. However, FanDuel is still posting an Over -104. Renfrow has topped this number in five of his last six games.

PICK: Hunter Renfroe Over 5.5 receptions (-104 at FanDuel)

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