The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to get their groove back, and what better place than Sin City to find it. The Chiefs are slight road favorites visiting the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night Football in Week 10.
Kansas City has won two straight and three of its last four but hasn’t done so in impressive fashion – and not nearly with enough oomph to get bettors over the hump, failing to cover the NFL betting spread in each of their last three outings.
Dive into our free NFL picks and predictions for Chiefs at Raiders on November 14.
Chiefs vs Raiders odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Kansas City opened as 2.5-point road chalk in Vegas in Week 10 and that spread climbed as high as -3 at some sportsbooks before buyback on the Raiders trimmed the line back to the opener, with KC -2.5 juiced at -115. The total for this classic AFC West rivalry hit the board at 51 points and has been bet up to as high as 52.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Chiefs vs Raiders picks
Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs vs Raiders game info
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Chiefs at Raiders betting preview
Key injuries
Chiefs: Deandre Baker CB (Out), Lucas Niang T (Out), Daniel Brown TE (Out), Khalen Saunders DT (Out).
Raiders: Peyton Barber RB (Out), Jackson Barton OT (Out), Malcolm Koonce DE (Out), Amik Robertson CB (Out), Tyree Gillespie S (Out), Nick Kwiatkoski LB (Out), Kendal Vickers DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 22-10 in the last 32 meetings between the Chiefs and Raiders. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Raiders.
Chiefs vs Raiders predictions
Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
To put Kansas City’s current offensive struggles into perspective, the Chiefs have scored one more point over their past three games (36) than they did the last time they faced the Raiders (35) in November 2020.
Kansas City’s once mighty attack has mustered just 4.5 yards per snap during that three-game skid, boasting a sad -0.076 EPA per play. All fingers point to QB Patrick Mahomes, who has finally fallen back to earth after more than three seasons of superhuman play.
Over the past three games, the former MVP is completing just under 59 percent of his throws, has a 2-to-2 TD-to-INT count, and a passer rating of 72.2 – just ahead of Sam Darnold and Justin Fields. But a few bad showings do not make the player, nor should they tarnish the legacy of Mahomes, who’s already a sure-fire Hall of Famer just four years into his career as a starter.
A little familiarity could go a long way in Week 10, with the Chiefs and Raiders rekindling their rivalry. Mahomes has a solid track record versus the Silver and Black – be it Oakland or Vegas – going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) in six meetings and owning a career passer rating of 105.6 in those games with 15 touchdowns to only three interceptions.
A matchup with the Raiders is far from a cure-all for Mahomes – especially with Las Vegas allowing only 20 passing plays of 20 or more yards on the year – but he may not have to do it all by himself.
Kansas City’s defense looks to be on the up and up after a terrible start to the season. The Chiefs owned a league-worst +0.242 EPA allowed per play through the first five weeks of action, but have chiselled that metric down to +0.002 over the past four outings.
Competition hasn’t been as tough – facing the likes of the WFT, Giants, and the Rodgers-less Packers – but KC is getting a little more dangerous, with six total takeaways (2 fumble recoveries/4 INTs) over the last four games. Now the Chiefs set their sights on Raiders QB Derek Carr, who had three turnovers in last week’s road loss to the Giants (2 INTs/ 1 fumble).
Getting Kansas City under the field goal is key here as this divisional clash could go down to the wire, as we’ve seen with Raiders games this season. And while I’m laying the points with the Chiefs pregame, this really feels like the “live bet” game of the week.
If you’re into in-game action, wait for the Chiefs to fall behind – as they’ve been outscored 15.6 to 11.7 in first halves – then come back on KC plus-money outright, with Mahomes finding his mojo in that classic comeback form.
Under 52 (-110)
If Kansas City is going to get this road win, it needs to make stops. That’s happening a little more frequently for the Chiefs in recent outings, checking foes to success on third downs just 38.89 percent of the time over the last three contests – a significant swing in the right direction after allowing opponents to move the chains at a 45.45 percent clip on third downs in the first six games.
Helping usher those opposing offenses off the field is a pass rush that’s getting healthier and deeper in the past few weeks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo leaned heavily on his front four to collapse the pockets against the Packers last week, getting massive push up front from Chris Jones, Frank Clark and recently-acquired DE Melvin Ingram. Kansas City finished with one sack, seven QB hits and limited Green Bay to 2 of 12 on third downs.
By successfully getting pressure with just four rushers, the Chiefs can clog up the passing lanes with linebackers and snuff out the Raiders run game, which has picked up speed. Las Vegas is averaging 4.5 yards per carry over the last three games, including 117 yards on just 20 carries (5.85 yards per attempt) in the loss to the Giants.
As is the case in most matchups with Mahomes & Co. – regardless of current form – you need to play a little defense on offense by running a more methodical pace and eating up all the time of possession you can, limiting the amount touches the Chiefs get. Las Vegas will try to do just that behind handoffs and short throws to Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake.
One big area the Raiders need to focus on is improving their red zone efficiency. Vegas left far too many points on the table in East Rutherford last week, picking up only 16 total points on six red-zone trips, and enters Week 10 with a TD percentage of just 46.67 percent over the last three games. Football Outsiders has the Silver and Black ranked 26th in RZ Offense DVOA and 22nd in goal-to-go situations.
Darren Waller Over 5.5 receptions (-140)
The Raiders’ passing game has been humming along, even with the ousting of head coach Jon Gruden a few weeks back. However, Las Vegas’ air attack is suddenly in flux after dropping Henry Ruggs, bringing in veteran wideout DeSean Jackson, and with WR Hunter Renfrow dealing with an ankle injury.
If the Silver and Black passing attack is a step behind, and Spagnuolo dials up the heat, Carr will be looking for a bailout early and often. And there aren’t too many checkdowns as good as Waller.
The Raiders TE caught seven of 11 passes in Week 9 and faces a Chiefs defense allowing the most yardage to tight ends in the league: 617 yards on 48 receptions. Waller has been targeted at least seven times in six of his seven starts in 2021 and the last time he faced Kansas City, the 6-foot-6, 255-pound monster had seven grabs on seven targets for 88 yards and a touchdown last November.
