We’ve seen weather play a pivotal role in the outcome of NFL playoff games through the first two rounds of the tournament — messing with several NFL picks — and Sunday’s AFC Championship will be no different.
The early forecast is calling for less-than-ideal conditions when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs for a 3 p.m. ET kickoff at M&T Stadium, which could affect the Conference Championship odds as we approach the showdown.
How much will weather impact the NFL odds? And will this forecast hold up as the week goes on? We’ll find out as I take a look at what to expect from Mother Nature in my Chiefs and Ravens weather report.
Be sure to check out our Super Bowl odds page for more NFL playoff coverage, as well as our Lions vs. 49ers weather report!
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Chiefs at Ravens Weather
The current forecast for Sunday’s showdown in Baltimore calls for a 62% chance of light rains starting Saturday night and continuing throughout the AFC Championship Game.
Also coming with those showers are sustained winds of 11 mph with gusts getting up to 21 mph at kickoff, blowing NNE from corner to corner at M&T Bank Stadium. According to some models, the winds will calm in the second half, with gusts dropping to 9 mph.
It’s not the most volatile weather — especially once winds die down — but the rain will make for slick field conditions and a slippery football. M&T Bank Stadium has a GN-1 Bermuda grass surface and is regarded as one of the better fields in the league, with durable sod and good drainage.
If footing has any impact on offensive performance, it could hurt the Kansas City Chiefs a little more considering their running game looks to cut outside at the second-highest rate (50%) in the NFL. Baltimore, on the other hand, calls more “downhill” runs up the middle and off the guard but will also look to break out an edge run (41%).
Both air attacks are used to the elements and also anchored in the short pass game, which means sharper cuts and breaks rather than downfield routes which rely more on speed. Any slickness could temper explosiveness from route runners when it comes to change of speed and change of direction.
The Baltimore Ravens do stretch the field a bit more with an average of 8.4 intended air yards (seventh highest), compared to Kansas City at just 6.5 (third lowest). The Chiefs rely on more yards after the catch for additional gains (6.4 per completion — third most) which is something we see from Baltimore as well (5.7 YAC/cmp — sixth most).
If the wet weather does hold up on Sunday afternoon, the nod in terms of surehanded receivers goes to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Baltimore recorded 22 drops in Jackson’s 16 regular season starts for a 5% drop rate.
That was tied for 14th most in the NFL but pales in comparison to Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes watched his targets bobble a league-high 39 catches for a drop rate of 6.9%. Though, I will say K.C.’s top targets have appeared steadier the past two weeks.
Both teams averaged 1.3 fumbles per game — tied for 10th most — and both lost 0.7 of those fumbles an outing. Jackson had 11 fumbles in the regular season and lost six of those between running and getting hit on passes.
With wind gusts coming in around 20 mph early in the AFC title game, kicking should be considered — especially with the Chiefs benefitting from a missed field goal to get to this point in the playoffs. Both kickers are stress tested with plenty of postseason experience.
Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker is one of the more accurate legs in the league, making better than 94% of his attempts for three points this regular season and going a perfect 4-for-4 in the playoffs. His long was 60 yards at Arrowhead Stadium back in October.
As for the Ravens, they have the best kicker in football history to lean on. Justin Tucker may have stumbled a bit earlier in the year, but the veteran has been sharp since December. He’s made 13 straight FGAs including a 2-for-2 day in the win over Houston (with some winds) at home last weekend.
This game could absolutely come down to a game-winning field goal... if the oddsmakers are spot on. Baltimore sits between -3 and -3.5 as of Monday afternoon and this total has bounced between 44.5 and 45.5 points.
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