Drew Brees makes his return to the New Orleans Saints just in time to welcome Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to town for an epic showdown of Super Bowl contenders.
With Brees back under center, sportsbooks have the Saints as rare 3-point home underdogs, but the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Can the Saints pull off the upset, or will the Chiefs roll to a ninth consecutive win and end their ATS skid?
We break down the NFL odds with our free Chiefs vs. Saints picks and predictions for Sunday, December 20, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Darwin Thompson RB (Out), Mike Remmers OL (Out), Ricky Seals-Jones TE (Out), Damien Wilson LB (Out).
Saints: Michael Thomas WR (Out), Malcolm Brown DT (Out), Jameis Winston QB (Out), Nick Easton C (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 5-1 in Saints' last six games following a straight-up loss and 3-1 in the Chiefs' last four road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Saints.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Drew Brees has missed the last four games with broken ribs and a punctured lung, but the Saints doctors gave him the all-clear Friday and he will man his usual position under center Sunday against the Chiefs.
While this game will be billed as Mahomes vs Brees, it's actually Mahomes vs the Saints’ defense. Mahomes is one of the betting favorites to win a second NFL MVP award, throwing for 4,208 yards with 33 touchdowns compared to just five picks.
Travis Kelce leads the league in receiving yards and Tyreek Hill isn’t far behind. They’re supported by Le’Veon Bell and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in backfield. Together they form the NFL’s No. 1-ranked total offense and are second in scoring. But they will be going up against one of their toughest tests this week.
The Saints defense has been tenacious all season long and held down the fort while Brees missed time. New Orleans ranks second in total defense and allows just 20.4 points per contest.
However, Mahomes and Kansas City have proven time and again, they will eventually break through, even against strong defenses. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how Brees looks after missing more than a month. On top of that, Brees’ favorite target, Michael Thomas, is also out with an ankle injury.
This should be the best game on the schedule in Week 15, and you can expect it to be close, but the Chiefs just have one too many weapons at their disposal and will make a big play when it counts, ending their ATS skid in the process.
PREDICTION: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
That impressive Saints defense is likely the reason we’re getting a relatively low total of 51.5 for a Chiefs-Saints matchup, particularly considering these teams combine to score nearly 60 points per game.
New Orleans obviously didn’t run a normal offense with Taysom Hill playing in place of Brees, and the Saints’ potency obviously took a hit. But with Brees back, things should return a bit to normal, and no one will be happier about Brees’ return than Alvin Kamara. The Saints star running back averaged just 72 yards of total yards in Brees’ absence, as opposed to 126 before his injury.
You can bet the Saints will attack a Chiefs defense that can step up and make big plays when needed, but has been gouged by running backs this season. With Brees back, and the Chiefs' ability to score at will, the Over looks like a good bet.
PREDICTION: Over 51.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
The Saints don’t give up many passing yards, but they have been vulnerable to passing touchdowns, ranking 20th in passing touchdowns allowed, and I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Mahomes is pretty good at throwing touchdowns. His passing total is a relatively high 2.5, but he has averaged 2.8 touchdowns over the last six games and will look to bounce back after last week’s game against Miami where he had a rare three-interception outing. Take the Over with a nice payout, as Mahomes tends to show up for big games.
PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TD Passes (+101)
Chiefs vs Saints Betting Card
- Chiefs -3 (-110)
- Over 51.5 (-110)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TD Passes (+101)
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