The Kansas City Chiefs can wrap up another AFC West crown on Sunday — and a matchup with the one-win Houston Texans should be an early gift for Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City is also eyeing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a victory here would keep the pressure on the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. To do so, it will need to clean up the blunders from its 34-26 win over the Denver Broncos last weekend.
Houston is chasing a different number one spot, entering Week 14 in pole position for the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite giving the Dallas Cowboys a major scare last time out, it’s tough to imagine the hosts finding its elusive second win against such elite opponents.
Check out our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Chiefs vs Texans in this Week 15 matchup.
Chiefs vs Texans best odds
Chiefs vs Texans picks and predictions
With the playoffs in sight and sterner tests to come, I’m expecting the Chiefs to try to bag a win on Sunday without needing to fire on all cylinders. That makes some of the prop bets — like passing yards and receiving yards — tougher to call.
Regardless, this Houston defense has been shredded on the ground this season. The Texans are rock bottom in the NFL with a whopping 165.8 rushing yards allowed per game — and the Chiefs should be content to lean on their backfield to move the chains. That makes Kansas City’s game plan even simpler — get the ball to its running backs and limit the hits on Patrick Mahomes.
In doing so, it brings Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco into play as prop targets. Both players have found the end zone during the Chiefs’ recent run of six wins in seven games, with McKinnon’s versatility as a pass catcher helping to fill the void left by Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney.
McKinnon did most of his damage in the passing game against the Broncos, benefitting from all the attention that Travis Kelce drew, and finishing with seven catches for 116 yards and two touchdowns. I expect him to get touches in the red zone here and I like these odds for the dual-threat running back to score a touchdown on Sunday.
My best bet: Jerick McKinnon anytime touchdown (+165)
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Chiefs vs Texans spread analysis
This spread was always going to be a big number, given Mahomes’ ability to put up points in the blink of an eye and the Texans’ growing injury list. While a two-touchdown line may seem hefty for a Kansas City team that’s 0-5-1 ATS over its last six games, it could really be higher with the talent gap between these offenses.
Houston deserves credit for pushing Dallas to the limit last weekend in a 27-23 loss, but that was also the first time the Texans have scored 20 points or more since Week 6 in Las Vegas. Now Dameon Pierce is out with an ankle injury and receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are both doubtful.
The hosts’ offense, which was co-piloted by Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel on Sunday, is so untested that the Chiefs could cover this spread without cracking the 30-point mark.
The biggest risk in laying the points stems from Kansas City taking its foot off the gas. After racing into a 27-0 lead against the Broncos in Week 13, Andy Reid’s defense gave up a string of big plays and Mahomes threw three picks. Still, I expect a much cleaner Chiefs' performance here, with the visitors improving on their 4-8-1 ATS record.
Chiefs vs Texans Over/Under analysis
If he’s in the mood, Mahomes could very well have a 300-yard, four-touchdown afternoon on Sunday, but this doesn’t feel like a game where Reid and Eric Bieniemy will be digging too deep into their playbook.
The Texans are still playing hard, but they just can’t string four solid quarters together. Houston is averaging 16 points a game — and that was with Pierce healthy. With the hosts missing so many offensive playmakers and Mahomes also without a few key pass-catchers, we could get a scrappy, disjointed battle on Sunday.
The Under is 4-1 in Houston’s last five games and I’m leaning that way, despite the scoring punch that Mahomes and Kelce bring for Kansas City.
Chiefs vs Texans betting trend to know
Kansas City tends to bounce back impressively when its rushing attack gets stifled. The Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games when they’ve had less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Texans.
Chiefs vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, December 18, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Texans +14, 46.5 |
Chiefs vs Texans latest injuries
Chiefs vs Texans weather
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