Last Christmas marked the debut of the NFL on Netflix, bringing two marquee matchups to our screens on December 25.
Now, with the 2025-26 NFL schedule rolling out, Santa’s bringing an even bigger gift — three Christmas Day games this year!
The first two matchups feature the Dallas Cowboys traveling to D.C. for an NFC East battle against the Washington Commanders, followed by the Minnesota Vikings playing host to the Detroit Lions.
Meanwhile, the late-night matchup will see the Denver Broncos head to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Prime Video.
Let’s dive into the latest NFL odds for all three matchups, along with early predictions for each contest.
NFL Christmas Day Odds
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cowboysvs.  Commanders |
1:00 p.m. | -3.5 |
51.5 |
 Lionsvs.  Vikings |
4:30 p.m. | -3 |
49.5 |
 Broncosvs.  Chiefs |
8:15 p.m. | -4.5 |
44.5 |
Early NFL Christmas Day Picks
Cowboys vs. Commanders odds for Christmas Day
|
1:00 p.m. ET | |
|---|---|---|
| +166 | Moneyline | -198 |
| +3.5 | Spread | -3.5 |
| o51.5 | Total | u51.5 |
My pick: Commanders -3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Is there a chance Jayden Daniels could be even better in his sophomore season? If free agency is any indication, the answer is yes.
The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home.
Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.
Covers NFL betting tools
Lions vs. Vikings odds for Christmas Day
|
4:30 p.m. ET | |
|---|---|---|
| -146 | Moneyline | +124 |
| -3 | Spread | +3 |
| o49.5 | Total | u49.5 |
My pick: Lions -3 (-102 at FanDuel)
Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season.
The lack of a consistent pass rush was evident in their divisional loss to Washington, and GM Brad Holmes addressed that in the offseason by selecting defensive tackle Tyleik Smith in the first round. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day.
Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.
More NFL betting analysis
- Aaron Rodgers’ record vs. every NFL team
- Patrick Mahomes’ record vs. every NFL team
- Russell Wilson’s record vs. every NFL team
- Josh Allen’s record vs. every NFL team
- Lamar Jackson’s record vs. every NFL team
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds for Christmas Day
My pick: Broncos +4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Don’t be fooled by the Kansas City Chiefs’ 15-2 record last season, as Patrick Mahomes & Co. finished just 8-9 ATS for bettors.
That mark included a narrow 19-17 win over Vegas in last year’s Black Friday matchup, as well as a 16-14 victory over these Denver Broncos following a blocked field goal at the buzzer that saved Kansas City from an upset loss as 7.5-point home favorites. The Chiefs are coming off three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, and fatigue could set in for Andy Reid’s team this season — especially that late in the year.
The Broncos have built off a 10-7 campaign (12-6 ATS) by adding Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram and bolstering an already elite defense with linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver is leading the AFC West by the time Christmas rolls around, so I’ll take the Broncos at +4.5.
Not intended for use in MA.
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