Covers is throwing an entry into the Circa Million Pro Football contest for the 2021 season and Adam Chernoff has been tabbed to make the weekly picks so let's dig right in.
Here are his five ATS picks for Week 9 of the Circa Million betting contest.
Week 8 record: 3-2
Season to date: 19-11
Week 9 picks
- New York Giants +3
- Cleveland +2.5
- Philadelphia +1.5
- San Francisco +1
- Chicago +6.5
Read on for a quick analysis of each play but watch the video above for more details.
New York Giants +3
Contest players have frequently opposed teams that struggle in prime time the following week this entire season. Considering how popular Las Vegas has been on a weekly basis, I do not expect this game to be any different. Where I struggle is getting to this number. To be favored by a field goal on the road, there must be a significant talent gap between the two teams.
I look at the Raiders as a team with a below-average roster overall and now a no-name coach, and just struggle to get to Las Vegas -3. Add in the distractions surrounding the team due to the unfortunate incident this weekend, combined with the trip across the country, and this number just feels too big.
Cleveland +2.5
This number was Cincinnati -3 leading up to the release of the contest lines, which I believed would draw decent two-way picking. However, now that we are looking at it in the contest at -2.5, I think the Bengals will be a very popular side. The Browns have covered just once in their last four games, and I believe bettors will look at the situation with OBJ as a downgrade. But much of the Cleveland struggles have come due to injury - and Beckham has been a non-factor all season.
The Browns enter this game as healthy as they have been all season with key weapons, offensive linemen, and defensive backs full participants in practice. Their third-ranked pass rush unit will fare well against the Bengals’ bottom-five offensive line and Cleveland should have success running the ball. I like the underdog here.
Philadelphia +1.5
Week after week after week, the Eagles continue to take money from the sharpest betting groups in the world - and this week is no different. The support needed to bring the number off +3 and down to +1.5 is significant, and this number can keep going. The Chargers are likely going to be the most picked side of the week (unless Murray is ruled out for Arizona) and I am content taking the Eagles and opposing the wave of picks.
In the last three games, Los Angeles has ranked among the worst five teams offensively in the league. Their offensive line has issues, and the Eagles pass rush looked rejuvenated after leader Fletcher Cox called out DC Gannon prior to the Lions game. With the Chargers down their starting QB and the Eagles getting their compliment of WR's back, this is a game the Eagles can win outright.
San Francisco +1
With the past three picks, I have found spots to go against the field, but this pick with San Francisco will most certainly be with the masses. Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are both true game-time decisions and it is unlikely either will have a status prior to this game locking on Saturday afternoon, which means most contest players will assume the worst and take SF +1 vs a market showing SF -2.5, especially off the heels of Minnesota being most-picked vs Dallas last week.
But this is more than just a play off the news. The 49ers are getting back near full health with Deebo Samuel playing at full speed, George Kittle returning and multiple defensive pieces back. Without many key names, and Trey Lance making his first-ever start, the 49ers outplayed the Cardinals in their first meeting a month ago, outgaining Arizona by 0.6 yards per play. The difference in the game was a 1/5 finish on fourth downs for the 49ers. A similar game plan can be exploited on both sides of the ball, and with a better QB under center and more weapons back, those high-leverage downs will go the way of San Francisco in a game they can win.
Chicago +6.5
Through eight weeks of the season, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in offensive success rate, 32nd in passing success rate and 28th in rushing success rate. They rank 26th in points scored per game and have exceeded 23 points just once the entire year. How can they be laying 6.5 points to any team in the league? The Steelers offense produces nothing explosive, and the Bears play frequently with three high safeties on the field to prevent any big plays.
It’s difficult to see how Pittsburgh can score enough points to cover this number. This season, they have been installed as a favorite three different times and failed to cover each. In Week 6, we saw them as a 5.5-point favorite at home vs Geno Smith. As bad as Chicago is, are we sure it’s worse than that? This number is much too high for me, and the Bears are the pick.
Football Contest Countdown
Before making your football contest picks, you'll want to watch the Covers Football Contest Countdown. Adam Chernoff brings on noted contest player Las Vegas Cris and they walk through the weekly odds — right after Circa releases their lines — with the goal of predicting the top consensus plays of the week. The show streams live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT each Thursday on YouTube and Twitter and is available on-demand at any time.
