C.J Stroud Odds and Wild Card Props: Will Browns Keep Rookie Down?

C.J. Stroud odds are a popular item as the Houston Texans try to open the NFL Wild Card Round on Saturday afternoon by springing a home upset against Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns.

While the Texans get a home game, they’re Wild Card odds underdogs against the Browns, who finished the year 11-6, while Houston won the AFC South with a 10-7 record. Stroud will have to match his best form this season to keep Houston’s NFL odds to win the Super Bowl alive, which comes across in my NFL player prop picks for the Texans rookie quarterback.

If you’re looking for more analysis of this matchup, check out Covers’ Browns vs. Texans picks and predictions, as well as our Browns vs. Texans props for this Wild Card battle.

C.J Stroud Wild Card prop picks

• Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
• Under 1.5 passing TDs/Under 248.5 passing yards/Browns ML

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

C.J Stroud Wild Card prop pick

Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-139)

C.J. Stroud has put together one of the best rookie seasons for any quarterback we’ve seen in a long time. His 23 touchdowns vs. just five interceptions were incredibly efficient, and while nobody would mistake him for an immediate MVP candidate, it’s clear that the Ohio State standout will be a force to be reckoned with in the NFL for many years to come.

While Stroud was great throughout the season, there were a couple games that pushed his stats a bit above his true baseline. In particular, he collected five touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in early November, which took an already impressive campaign and turned it into one of the best first years we’ve ever seen for a signal caller. 

In reality, Stroud wasn’t quite as elite as his overall numbers might seem. No doubt, he was outstanding for a first-year quarterback. But that game against Tampa Bay was the only time he threw for more than two touchdowns, and he only created multiple scores through the air in 8 of his 17 games overall.

Against Cleveland, Stroud will face one of the best secondaries in the NFL. The Browns allowed just 164.7 yards per game through the air, while also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 57.4% of their passes. The Cleveland defense held opponents to a 72.0 quarterback rating, an incredibly low number in the modern NFL.

This looks like a tough playoff matchup for a quarterback who has never experienced postseason NFL football. Stroud has thrown for two or more touchdown in just one of his last four games, and may find it hard to generate big plays against a stout Browns defense. While Stroud will have a great NFL career, Saturday won’t be his day to shine.

Prop: Under 1.5 touchdown passes (-139 at BetRivers)

C.J Stroud Wild Card same-game parlay

Under 1.5 passing TDs

Under 248.5 passing yards

Browns ML

30% boost available

+290 +377 at DraftKings

The Cleveland defense is stingy against the passing attack. That’s why I’ve predicted that the Browns will hold Stroud to less than two passing touchdowns, but the effect of the Cleveland secondary won’t end there for Houston’s rookie quarterback.

The Browns have been exceptionally effective at preventing opposing quarterbacks from even moving the ball well against them. Cleveland is allowing just 5.2 yards per attempt and 9.1 yards per completion, numbers that rank among the best in the NFL. Houston has never relied heavily on running back Devin Singletary, but that might be the best route against a Browns defense that simply doesn’t allow opponents to beat them deep.

As a result, I’m taking Stroud to get Under 248.5 passing yards on Saturday. He was able to surpass that number in the majority of his starts this year, but we also saw elite defenses like the New York Jets hold him to Under 100 yards late in the year. Against an equally capable Browns defense that’s gearing up for playoff football, 248.5 yards seems like a tough ask.

On that note, I’m taking the Browns to win this game outright. The Texans have relied on Stroud to provide the magic that has led them to a division title and a home playoff game. It’s likely that he’ll eventually lead this franchise to many playoff victories, and potentially even a title or two down the road. 

But that won’t happen in Stroud’s first playoff start against a particularly difficult defense to solve. This will be a learning experience for the rookie, and without him being able to dominate the game, the Texans won’t be able to keep up with a solid Browns team that’s now under the veteran leadership of Flacco. I’m taking Cleveland to win this game outright to complete my SGP.

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