It feels weird to say it but the NFL Week 5 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns features two of the better teams in the league. Both squads finished below .500 in 2019 but are currently riding three-game winning streaks to sit at 3-1.
NFL betting odds have the Browns installed as 2.5-point home underdogs for Sunday's showdown with the Over/Under at 47. Here are our free NFL picks and predictions for the Colts vs. Browns on Sunday, October 11 with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a cloudy afternoon at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio with temperatures in the high 60s and winds blowing ENE up to 20 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Colts: Anthony Castonzo OT (Out), Darius Leonard LB (Out), Michael Pittman WR (Out), Parris Campbell WR (Out), Malik Hooker S (Out), Marlon Mack RB (Out).
Browns: Greedy Williams CB (Out), Tae Davis LB (Out), Larry Ogunjobi DT (Out), Karl Joseph S (Out), Nick Chubb RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Under is 5-0 in Browns last five against teams with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Browns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Both teams dropped their season openers - Indianapolis losing by seven points against a mediocre Jacksonville team and Cleveland getting hammered 33-6 by Super Bowl contenders Baltimore - and have since been on a roll winning three games in a row.
While the Colts are winning thanks to a defense that's allowed just 9.7 points per game in their last three games, the Browns are winning due to an explosive offense that's scored 39.3 ppg over their previous three contests. It's the classic battle of offense versus defense, but the difference-maker might be Cleveland's stop-unit which is marginally better than Indy's attack.
The Colts rank 24th in the league in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and are just 30th in third-down conversion percentage.
Despite the Browns' overall poor play on defense, they rank 10th in the NFL in defensive rushing DVOA, are fourth in quarterback pressures, and lead the league with 10 takeaways. Take the home side and the points.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Colts are 5-2 to the Under in their last seven games, while the Browns are 5-0 to the Under in their previous five contests against teams with a winning record. Cleveland's biggest weakness on defense is their secondary but luckily for them, Indy might not have enough downfield weapons besides T.Y. Hilton to take advantage of that.
As for the Browns offense, it's built around their running game, which leads the NFL with 204.5 rushing yards per contest. But they won't be quite so dominant against the Colts No. 1-ranked defense, especially with leading rusher Nick Chubb sidelined with an MCL sprain.
These teams are two of the most run-heavy squads in the league, with the Browns running the ball on 53.3 percent of all plays (most in the NFL) and the Colts running on 50.4 percent of all offensive snaps (sixth-most). Expect both teams to lean on their defense and running games and take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 47.5 (-110)
Player Prop
The Colts defense has been strong against the run this year, ranking sixth in the league in yards per carry allowed with 3.6, but they'll be without their top linebacker in Darius Leonard on Sunday while middle linebacker Anthony Walker is questionable with an ankle injury.
The Browns have been the top running team in the league, and without Chubb in the lineup that task will fall to the very capable Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie three years ago. Hunt has rumbled for 275 yards and 5.5 yards per attempt this season as Chubb's backup and will carry a full workload on Sunday. Take the Over on his rushing yards.
PREDICTION: Kareem Hunt Over 74.5 rushing yards (-112)
Colts vs Browns betting card
- Cleveland +2.5 (-110)
- Under 47.5 (-110)
- Kareem Hunt Over 74.5 rushing yards (-112)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Colts vs. Browns picks, you could win $58.99 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
