Colts vs Cowboys SNF Prop Bets: Elliott Can't Be Stopped

The reeling Indianapolis Colts roll into Jerry’s World Sunday night as the Dallas Cowboys sit as double-digit favorites for the second straight week.

With Matt Ryan’s inability to get the ball downfield and now facing one of the best pass rushes in football, there aren’t many Overs I'm looking at on the visiting side. Dallas, however, is a different story. 

Here are my NFL player prop picks for Sunday Night Football’s battle between the Colts and Cowboys. Be sure to also check out our SNF full-game betting preview before kickoff!

Colts vs Cowboys props

• Ryan longest completion Under 34.5 yards
• Lamb Over 71.5 receiving yards
• Elliott anytime TD (+110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Colts vs Cowboys SNF props

The Ryan sleeps tonight

We hit Matt Ryan's Under 36.5 yards longest completion last Monday and I’m going back to the well for another prime-time game.

Ryan is 8-2 to the Under on his longest completion prop and the Indy quarterback has just two completions on the season longer than 36 yards. Michael Pittman doesn’t even have a reception of 30-plus, with his longest catch of the season being just 28 yards. 

Last week, Ryan had a long completion of just 28 yards vs. a very generous Pittsburgh pass defense. The Colts continue to run the ball under Jeff Saturday (44% last three vs. 37% on the season). Now Ryan, whose 4.0 air yards per attempt ranks 25th in football, has to face one of the best pass rushes in football that generate a league-best pressure rate of 30.2%.

Ryan struggles to keep plays alive and let his deep routes develop. He’s one of the most-sacked QBs in football, getting whacked three times per game. Despite having the second-best accuracy on passes over 20 yards, he just doesn’t take any chances downfield and ranks 32nd in deep-ball passes at 1.9 per game, per Player Profiler. 

With another tough matchup on deck and zero indication of a change in offensive mentality, it will be another conservative passing attack from a player who might not even finish the game. 

Matt Ryan Prop: Longest completion Under 34.5 yards  (-115)

Now you CeeDee

Game script is always important when looking at props but it is usually priced in. Take CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop for example. It currently sits at 71.5 yards, six yards shorter than it was two games ago vs. the Vikings, and five yards shorter than last week. 

The Cowboys have been having their way with their opponents of late, meaning a ton of positive game script. Since their Week 7 win vs. Detroit, the Cowboys have outscored their opponents 179 to 89. However, Lamb and the passing game have still been very relevant.

Over that stretch, Dak Prescott is averaging 252 passing yards per game and Lamb has a 28.6% target share. The receiver is averaging six catches for 90 yards and has been held to under 70 yards just once over that five-game stretch.

Michael Gallup has been dealing with an illness all week and hasn’t practiced. He is the second-most targeted receiver on this team at 17.8% since Prescott has returned. Lamb might also have an easier time with the Indy secondary as starting corner Kenny Moore has been ruled out. 

Moore has started every game this season and grades as one of the worst coverage corners in football, per Pro Football Focus. That leads me to believe that the depth behind him is even worse. Special teamer Tony Brown is likely the next man up and he’s been graded poorly since coming into the league as an undrafted player.

With the success of the run game, Lamb has been collecting chunk plays like no other, hauling in the most 20-plus yard catches since Week 7 in the league. More long receptions are on the way and THE BLITZ has him projected for 94.04 yards Sunday night.

CeeDee Lamb Prop: Over 71.5 receiving yards (-110)

Zeke show

We all know that Tony Pollard is the more explosive back for the Cowboys, but Ezekiel Elliott is always going to get his. He has fewer rushes and yards than Pollard over the last two weeks but has been getting the bulk of the work near the goal line. He has three TDs over the last two games to make six over his last four contests. 

Elliott has TD runs of one, one, and six yards since returning to the lineup, and is getting the majority of the snaps inside the 20. His TD price has been as short as -140 this season but enters Week 13 at +110 to score in his fifth straight game.

He’ll see an Indy defense that allowed two rushing scores last week to a bad Pittsburgh rushing attack that lost its starting running back Najee Harris in the first half. Backups Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland had no issues gaining yards vs. the Colts on the ground, and combined for 92 yards on 18 carries. Only four other teams have allowed more rushing TDs over the last three weeks than Indianapolis. 

Getting the RZ running back at the longer price of +110 compared to Pollard’s -110 is the icing on the cake. Don’t get frustrated with the timeshare in the Dallas backfield, turn it into a profit with an Elliott TD at plus money.

Ezekiel Elliott Prop: Anytime touchdown (+110)

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