Colts vs Titans Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Indy's Defense Will Shut Down Tannehill

It may only be Week 7, but these two AFC South rivals are meeting for the second time this season when the Indianapolis Colts head to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon.

The Colts find themselves on a mini-win streak and are sitting at 3-2-1 on the season. The Titans are 3-2 and coming off a bye week after winning three consecutive games, including the first matchup with the Colts.

Will the Titans take early control of the AFC South with another win over Indy? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Colts vs. Titans on Sunday, October 23.

Colts vs Titans best odds

Colts vs Titans picks and predictions

Matt Ryan has been a turnover machine early in the season, as he has seven interceptions (second-most in the NFL) and 11 fumbles (leads the league). He has also been sacked 21 times, which is tied for the fourth-most.

However, last week’s game against Jacksonville was a different story. Ryan did not turn the ball over at all and was not sacked once in a 34-27 win over the Jaguars. This is despite Ryan being sacked five times and throwing three interceptions in their first matchup, a 24-0 loss.

The massive improvement from both Ryan and the offensive line from the first matchup to the second is a positive sign leading into this Sunday’s rematch with the Titans. Tennessee was able to sack Ryan three times and forced him to turn the ball over twice in their 24-17 win in Week 4.

Another thing that stuck out from that Week 4 matchup was the Colts' defense made some huge halftime adjustments. After giving up 24 points in the first 22:20 of game time, they completely shut out the Titans in the final 37:40 of game time.

Despite winning four consecutive games and five of his last six against the Colts, Ryan Tannehill has not put up big numbers in his career against Indy. Since joining Tennessee in 2019, Tannehill has only averaged 191.5 passing yards per game against the Colts. In the first matchup this year, he threw for just 137 yards despite an 80.95% completion percentage and near-perfect quarterback rating.

The Colts have the 10th-best passing defense in the NFL, allowing only 202.7 yards per game through the air. The possible return of Shaquille Leonard and Julian Blackmon will also help boost this passing defense to even greater heights.

I love the Under in Tannehill’s passing yardage prop here.

My best bet: Ryan Tannehill Under 217.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Colts vs Titans spread analysis

This is a massive game for both teams when it comes to first place in the AFC South. The Colts will have only one division game left for the remainder of the season, and a loss would put them well back in any tiebreak scenarios.

Meanwhile, a win for the Titans would put them firmly in the driver’s seat in the tiebreakers and give them a game-and-a-half lead in the division. The Colts have already proved they can vastly improve in their second chance against the same opponent, and they already started to pick apart the Titans in the second half of their last meeting. 

The potential return of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Leonard, and Blackmon come at the absolute perfect time for the Colts. They should be able to get their running game going again with a solid defense to keep control of the game. The road team is 7-1 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams.

The Colts are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games in Tennessee. Also, Indianapolis has covered and won straight up in three consecutive games as underdogs and covered in nine of its last 10 as pups dating back to the 2019 season. The Colts should pick up where they left off in the second half of their last matchup and play great defense against this Titans offense that will be without key wide receiver Treylon Burks.

I also am impressed with the improvement of the offensive line and believe they will finally get their running game going on Sunday. Give me the Colts to cover and win straight up in a must-have for them.

Colts vs Titans Over/Under analysis

In the first game between these two teams, I was all over the Titans team total Under, and there are also so many trends to back taking the Under in this second matchup.

The Under is 6-1 in the Titans' last seven home games. The Under is also 10-1 in the Colts' last 11 games overall and 6-0 in their last six road games. Take your pick for a scenario, and the chances are it backs the Under. I already mentioned I love the Under on Tannehill's passing yards, and I believe the Colts will get their run game going.

This could be a big time of possession game for Indy, and its defense will likely be able to hold the Titans under 20 points. The Under seems like a solid bet, despite its low number of 42.

Colts vs Titans betting trend to know

The Colts are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Titans.

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