The NFL made the decision to flex a non-conference clash between the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings to Sunday Night Football in Week 9.
While Indianapolis is one of the more baffling teams in the league, bringing a 4-4 SU record into primetime, there’s no doubt among bettors who their champion is. The Colts carry a 7-1 ATS mark in those opening eight outings and are getting plenty of points in Minnesota this Sunday.
I dig into the spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my early Colts vs. Vikings predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 3.
Looking for even more analysis? Check out Josh Inglis' full Colts vs. Vikings predictions.
Colts vs Vikings predictions
Early spread lean
Minnesota -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Vikings not only have home field over the Indianapolis Colts but also the rest advantage, coming off the mini bye after a bad loss at Los Angeles last Thursday. Minnesota has now dropped two in a row after a 5-0 SU and ATS start to 2024 but doesn’t face the same level of QB competition in Week 9.
Minnesota’s heralded defense was chewed up by savvy quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford in those losses, but now defensive coordinator Brian Flores sets his blitz-heavy schemes loose on second-year QB Anthony Richardson.
Richardson is an all-or-nothing option for Indianapolis. He’s connecting on home run plays with his big arm, but outside of those deep balls, Richardson is really struggling with the simplest of throws.
Richardson is a collective 20 for 56 passing the last two games, totaling just over 300 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Colts QB doesn’t have glowing stats overall, regardless of being pressured or kept clean, but his numbers sink to vomit-inducing levels when blitzed.
That’s what you’re going to get from Minnesota. The Vikings bring extra pass rushers on over 41% of their opponents' dropbacks, which is No. 1 in the NFL by a large margin. That’s cooked up a top-ranked pressure rate along with the most QB hurries, QB hits, and 24 sacks – third most in the league.
Richardson is mistake-prone when feeling the heat, throwing seven interceptions and fumbling the ball five times (only losing one of those). Yet, the Colts continue to overcome those errors and play close games.
All eight of Indianapolis’ games have been one-score games, with the team owning an average margin of +0.4 against an average spread around +1. This is the Colts' toughest test and with the Vikings coming in rested and ready to right the ship, I’m leaning Minnesota below the key number of -6.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 45.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
If Richardson struggles, Indianapolis could put veteran QB Joe Flacco under center — and honestly, it probably should anyway. Either route, expect the Colts to count on recently-return RB Jonathan Taylor to shoulder the offensive load.
Taylor played his first game in almost a month in Week 8, rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against Houston. However, the Vikings aren’t the team to run against. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in EPA allowed per handoff and No. 2 in opponent success rate allowed per run.
We could see Richardson forced into long yardage situations, leaving him to air it out. While the Vikes are great at bringing pressure, the pass defense has slipped in recent starts. Minnesota sits 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass since Week 6. They’ve also allowed 24 passes of 20 more yards.
As of this writing, Minnesota is sticking with Sam Darnold under center in the wake of rumors that the team was kicking the tires on a trade for Stafford. Darnold is letting it fly, sitting Top 4 in both intended and completed air yards per attempt along with 25 passing plays of 20-plus yards.
This Over/Under opened at 46.5 and has dipped to 45.5 points in the first 12 hours of action. But with the game indoors and both quarterbacks unafraid to push the ball downfield, we could see big plays lead to quick touchdowns.
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Colts vs Vikings live odds
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