It's shaping up to be a high-scoring primetime game between the Indianapolis Colts and the host Minnesota Vikings, who enter on a two-game skid after a 5-0 start to the season.
With a competent passing QB under center again for Indianapolis and a Minnesota offense giving it up to opposing receivers, my Colts vs. Vikings predictions expect Joe Flacco to throw a pair of TD passes.
Here are my NFL picks for this SNF showdown on Sunday, November 3 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
Colts vs Vikings SNF prediction
My best bet
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 passing TDs (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
Over his last eight games dating back to last year with the Browns, the ageless but competent Joe Flacco is averaging 291.5 passing yards, 24.3 completions, and 2.5 passing TDs per game.
Those are insane numbers and a reason why the noise to make the switch from Anthony Richardson was so loud following Week 8's loss to the Texans.
Flacco has not thrown for fewer than two TDs in any of those eight games (seven starts) and has 20 total passing scores over that stretch. Just looking at his three games this year vs. Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and the Titans, he has a 7:1 TD:INT ratio with 716 passing yards.
Flacco now faces the Minnesota Vikings, who allow the most completions per game (26.6), the third-most passing yards per game (263), and the fifth-most passing TDs per game (2.0).
Add in that the Indianapolis Colts could be chasing points and an indoor setting that increases passing volume and efficiency, and there is no reason why bettors should doubt Flacco Sunday night.
He has a ton of weapons as the market is starting to pile on Josh Downs' Overs as he has a 27% target share when Flacco plays, but Michael Pittman is another great target, as is Jonathan Taylor in the passing game.
The heavily-used back didn't get much work in the passing game under Richardson but had his best receiving game in Week 4 with Flacco, taking four targets for three grabs and 20 yards.
The book might be out on the heavy-blitzing defense as opposing QBs have thrown for 12 TDs vs. the Vikes over the last four games. Books continue to disrespect Flacco.
Colts vs Vikings SNF same-game parlay
Joe Flacco 2+ passing touchdowns
Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards
Josh Downs 6+ receptions
Flacco has yet to throw for fewer than two TDs in any game since getting the call off the couch from the Browns last year. That's a stretch of eight games where he is also averaging almost 300 yards per match.
Justin Jefferson is set for another big game indoors vs. the Colts' 23rd-ranked pass defense in EPA/dropback. The Minnesota WR is coming off his second 100-yard game and has yet to be held to fewer than 81 yards since Week 1.
In his five indoor games this year, Jefferson is averaging 102.3 yards per game on 12.8 targets compared to 78.7 yards and 8.4 targets outdoors.
The final leg is Josh Downs, who bettors have been piling on. His Over 5.5 receptions has moved as short as -170 in some places at the time of writing.
He's the most-targeted receiver with Flacco under center at 27% and has games of seven, eight, and nine receptions with Flacco with a total of 30 targets over three games. Let's have a shootout on Sunday night.
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Colts vs Vikings odds
Colts vs Vikings live odds
Colts vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis +6.5 | Minnesota -6.5
- Moneyline: Indianapolis +255 | Minnesota -315
- Over/Under: Over 46 | Under 46
Odds courtesy of bet365
Colts vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Vikings were as high as -7 last week, reopened at -6.5, and then moved to -5.5 a day before the Flacco move was officially announced.
- Joe Flacco had just one game with running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 4 before he was injured and missed three straight games. It will be interesting to see the run rate of the Colts with Taylor in but an upgrade in passing with Flacco, who threw the ball 26 times with Taylor and 44 and 38 times without him.
- Indoor games increase passing volume and efficiency. I don't think it's always priced in.
- The Vikings enter Sunday on extra rest after taking a 30-20 defeat in Week 8 to the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Colts vs Vikings betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Vikings.
How to watch Colts vs Vikings
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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