Bettors should expect some fireworks Sunday night when Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders take on Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who sit as 3-point home favorites with a Wild Card Weekend-high 50-point total.
The Commanders’ passing game will have plenty of advantages Sunday night with the state of the Tampa Bay secondary, and that's why my Commanders vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks believe Olamide Zaccheaus will show out when things kick off at 8:00 ET on NBC.
Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction
- Spread pick: Commanders +3 (-110 at Caesars)
- Moneyline pick: Buccaneers moneyline (-165 at Caesars)
- Over/Under pick: Under 50 (-110 at Caesars)
- Best bet: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Commanders vs Buccaneers spread
I think of all the underdogs in the Wild Card Round, the Commanders might have the best chance to cover at +3 (-110). The injuries to the Tampa secondary are concerning and so is their strength of schedule down the stretch.
They didn't look good vs. Spencer Rattler and the Saints in Week 18, and Jayden Daniels has made a name for himself late in games. I think this moves to 2.5 before it budges back to 3.5. I've been told not to read too much into the "mild leg soreness" of Jayden Daniels.
Commanders vs Buccaneers moneyline
I’m not touching the Tampa moneyline at -165 by itself. However, Tampa’s offence is well-rounded and can lean on Bucky Irving and the run game with a lead or play from behind, as we saw last week. Tampa is never out of a game.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Over/Under
Fifty points is a lot in the playoffs, and it's not like the Commanders are loaded with offensive talent when their leading receiver over the final three weeks of the season was Olamide Zaccheaus at 205 yards. The Commanders have not seen a 50-point total in 10 straight games, while the Bucs haven’t seen a 50-point total since Week 7 vs. Baltimore. I’m not betting on it, but I certainly lean to the Under on the highest total on the board.
Commanders vs Buccaneers best bet
Olamide Zaccheaus Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Olamide Zaccheaus was an afterthought on this Washington Commanders roster at the beginning of the year. He was WR4 at best behind Terry McLaurin, Johan Dotson (traded), Luke McCaffrey, and maybe even Dyami Brown and Noah Brown. But 17 games can make a big difference, as the former undrafted WR playing for his third team in as many years has become the No. 2 WR in this offense.
He leads the team in receiving yards over the last three weeks with 206 — one yard shorter than Amon-Ra St.Brown for the league lead and three more yards than Courtland Sutton — while also leading the team in receiving in Weeks 16 and 17. He ran the second-most routes last week even with the return of Dyami Brown but still has a receiving total 15 yards too short at 37.5, which is an easy Over for me.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary is dealing with a cluster of injuries. Corner Jordan Whitehead has been ruled out, starting safety Mike Edwards is questionable, and starting corner Jamel Dean is also questionable. This was the defense that made Spencer Rattler look good last week.
Zaccheaus had a closing receiving total of 34.5 yards last week, and this adjustment to 37.5 yards this week is not enough. He has more yards, more receptions, more receptions of 20+ yards, and more TDs than McLaurin since Week 15. He's going to have a big role in a potential shootout, especially with a quarterback that's looked great in comeback mode.
Commanders vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Olamide Zaccheaus 50+ receiving yards
Jalen McMillan 50+ receiving yards
Zach Ertz anytime touchdown
Why not go big on a 50-point game?
Zaccheaus is a great player to hit his Alt Overs as he has yardages of 70, 85, and 51 yards over his last three games. He is a great person to target for a ladder because of that low 37.5-yard total. He is the most effective pass catcher on this Washington team right now.
Jalen McMillan might also see some more work with Marshon Lattimore likely locking up old divisional foe Mike Evans. The rookie WR has also been elite down the stretch and has hit the 50-yard receiving mark in five straight games heading into the playoffs. His routes and snaps took off after Week 12, and now he runs as the No. 2 and could lead this game in yards.
The Zach Ertz TD is also a dark horse bet here. He has three TDs over his last two games and six scores over his last seven. His role in the red zone has been huge of late with six of his 12 targets over the last two games coming inside the 20. With Terry McLaurin paying a sad +120 for a TD, Ertz is the better bet at +200 or better.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Commanders vs Buccaneers odds
Commanders vs Buccaneers live odds
Commanders vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: Washington +3 | Buccaneers -3
- Moneyline: Washington +150 | Buccaneers -179
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Commanders vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Neither team has seen a total as high as 50 points in 10+ games. Despite that, both teams cashed Overs at elite rates this season, combining to go 23-11 O/U.
- Both teams were also profitable ATS this year. Tampa was 5-4 ATS as a favorite of a field goal or more this year while the Commanders went 3-2-1 ATS as a dog this season.
- Down the stretch, the Bucs played the Saints (-15), Panthers (-10.5), Cowboys (-4), Chargers (+3), Raiders (-7), Panthers (-6.5), and Giants (-6). They finished that run 6-1 SU and went 4-3 ATS.
- Against playoff teams, the Commanders were 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS, while the Bucs finished 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.
Commanders vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Buccaneers have only hit the 1H moneyline in nine of their last 22 games (-10.55 Units / -26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Buccaneers.
Commanders vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-12-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Commanders vs Buccaneers latest injuries
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