The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday night. This Wild Card game features a pair of prolific attacks and vulnerable defenses, which is why my NFL picks are backing a trio of playmakers and their NFL player props.
See why I'm betting on rookie phenoms Jayden Daniels and Bucky Irving with my best free Commanders vs. Buccaneers props for January 12.
Commanders vs Buccaneers props
- Jayden Daniels o49.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
- Bucky Irving o87.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
- Olamide Zaccheaus o36.5 receiving yards (-118 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Commanders vs Buccaneers props
Prop bet #1: Jayden Daniels Over 49.5 rushing yards
Ignoring Week 18 when he played just the first half, Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has rushed for more than 65 yards in four of his last five games. He also rushed for 88 yards on 16 carries when these teams played back in Week 1.
A lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Daniels finished the regular season with 891 rushing yards on 148 rush attempts. He easily led all quarterbacks in scrambles (75) and rushing yards on scrambles (595) with Bo Nix next on the list with 234 fewer yards.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, allowing a 65% success rate on scrambles — the third-worst mark in the league.
Daniels has a league-best run grade of 93.0 when blitzed and Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league. The Bucs are also fifth in QB pressures which should lead to Daniels being forced out of the pocket and making more plays with his feet.
Prop bet #2: Bucky Irving Over 87.5 rushing yards
With Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore returning to Washington's secondary, Tampa Bay might be less inclined to attack through the air. Instead, expect Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen to lean on Bucky Irving and the ground game.
The rookie emerged as one of the league's best running backs down the stretch, racking up three 100-yard games in December. Despite weighing just 195 pounds, Irving has proved that he can be a workhorse with Rachaad White phased out after a costly fumble against Dallas.
Irving logged 25 carries for 152 yards in Week 13 and carried the ball 20 times for 113 yards in Week 17 before finishing the season with a 19-carry, 89-yard performance versus the Saints.
The Commanders are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) while ranking 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.8) and 27th in defensive rush EPA.
Prop bet #3: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 36.5 receiving yards (-118)
After Noah Brown went down with a season-ending injury in December, Olamide Zaccheaus has seen his offensive role grow.
Zaccheaus had five catches for 70 yards against Philadelphia in Week 16 before hauling in eight of nine targets for 85 yards against Atlanta in Week 17. He saw five targets last week and while he corralled just two of them, he still ended up with 51 yards.
Despite facing a slew of terrible quarterbacks down the stretch, the Bucs finished the season 27th in the league in defensive dropback success rate. They also allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers and play zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Washington's No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin has a 23.5% target share against man coverage but that number ticks down to 20.5% against zone. Meanwhile, Zaccheaus has an 16.7% target share against man but that surges to a team-high 24.4% versus zone.
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