The NFC Championship features familiar foes with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Washington Commanders for this 3 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday.
This will be the third meeting of the year between these NFC East rivals, with the teams splitting their regular season matchups.
I look at the opening odds and give my early Commanders at Eagles predictions and NFL picks for January 26.
Commanders vs Eagles predictions
Early spread lean
Eagles -5.5 (-115 at Caesars)
My analysis
This game opened as low as Philadelphia Eagles -4.5, which was between a point and 1.5 points shorter than the lookahead lines available before the Divisional Round results. That lower open reflect the knee injury sustained by Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts in Sunday’s win over the L.A. Rams.
Hurts battled through the pain but his rushing abilities were limited. However, after the game, Hurts gave a positive update to the media and said he would be playing in Sunday’s NFC title game. That took this spread up to Eagles -5.5 as of this writing.
I did bet Philly at -4.5 in an effort to get ahead of any updates on Hurts. I’m sure Philadelphia will be cagey with updates this week, but Hurts will be on the field for this Eagles offense.
But it’s the defense that has me putting my money on Philadelphia. Coordinator Vic Fangio has really gotten the best out of his stop unit in the home stretch of the schedule and this defense is a huge step up compared to the Washington Commanders’ postseason foes.
The Detroit Lions were decimated with injuries across all three levels of the defense and had sunk to the bottom of the defensive metrics in the second half of the season. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whom Washington beat in the Wild Card Round, was one of the worst units at defending the pass all season.
Philadelphia can control possession and pace with the run game, which amassed more than 430 total yards in the two games versus the Commanders, and contain rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the D.C. downfield attack on defense.
And while the Eagles and Commanders split results in the regular season, Philadelphia was dominant in the Week 11 win at home while Washington got some help from an injured Hurts in the 36-33 victory at home in Week 16.
I like the Eagles to win and cover. While the -4.5 lines are gone, the -5.5 spreads are starting to see higher juice on the Eagles, so a move to -6 could be on the way. Make sure you get this line under that key number if you like Philadelphia.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 48 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Philadelphia doesn’t want this game to turn into a shootout. Hurts’ passing prowess has been questioned recently and the Eagles are at their best when they can lean into the rushing attack and wear down the opposing defense.
The Commanders haven’t shown they’re up to stuffing the run. They gave up more than 200 yards on the ground to Detroit and allowed Philly to rush for 200-plus in their two matchups in the regular season.
Given that, Philadelphia has a good shot of putting this game in sand and grinding out extended drives that chew up clock and leave Washington with fewer possessions.
When the Commanders do have the football, Daniels will be trying to decipher Fangio’s disguised schemes. The rookie had a quiet day against the Eagles in the first meeting, passing for only 191 yards and no touchdowns. And while he had a bigger output along with five passing TDs in the second run-in, Philadelphia did pickoff Daniels twice.
The weather for Sunday’s NFC title game looks much better than Sunday’s forecast in Philly. The extended look calls for cloudy skies and temperatures around freezing with lighter winds.
These NFC East foes played Under the total in their first game back in Week 11, with the Eagles grinding out a 26-18 victory at Lincoln Financial Field that stayed well below the closing total of 49.5. I could see a similar result on Sunday.
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Commanders vs Eagles live odds
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