Early Commanders vs Eagles Predictions, Picks, and Odds for TNF Week 11

NFL bettors get another good one on Thursday Night Football when the Washington Commanders visit the Philadelphia Eagles to kick off Week 11.

This mid-week matchup is a massive game in terms of the NFC East pecking order. I size up the spread and total for Thursday Night Football, giving my early leans for Commanders vs. Eagles predictions and NFL picks on November 14.

Commanders vs Eagles predictions

Early spread lean
Commanders +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

My analysis

With the Washington Commanders coming off a loss to Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia Eagles dropping Dallas on its head in Week 10, the official opener for Thursday Night Football has the Eagles laying -3.5 at home on the short week.

There’s early interest in the underdog, pumping up the vig on Washington +3.5 to as high as -118, indicating a potential move to a field goal spread soon. If you’re backing the visitor, you’ll definitely want the half-point hook on the key number. 

It’s tough to buy into Philadelphia as a true power, considering the level of competition in recent weeks. The Eagles have beaten up on Dallas, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and the Giants, with those foes boasting a collective 13-35 record on the year.

Washington is coming off a wild loss to the Steelers, who had two weeks to prep and prepare for Jayden Daniels and this Kliff Kingsbury attack. Philadelphia only has a matter of days to scheme for the Commanders.

Given this a crucial divisional matchup, a field-goal line seems like the proper closing spot. So, for the sake of grabbing the better number, bet Washington now if you like them. If you’re thinking Eagles on TNF, wait for the field-goal spread later in the week.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 49.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis

This Thursday-nighter has the potential to become a shootout, given the star power on the field.

Washington is the most explosive offense in the land and plays at a breakneck pace. However, the Eagles seem to be finding their form in Vic Fangio’s defensive schemes and those disguised coverages can give rookie QBs fits.

The Eagles enter Week 11 ranked No. 6 in EPA allowed per play and tops in opponent success rate per snap. Philadelphia is starting to get good pressure without bringing the blitz, which allows them to clog up passing lanes with linebackers but also spy on the mobile Daniels.

On offense, Philadelphia will try to control possession and time. The Eagles’ run game is also starting to rev up, sitting among the Top 5 ground attacks in the NFL. They’re picking up the sixth-most yards per carry and face a Commanders defense giving up the eighth-highest success rate per run.

I could see Philadelphia taking the air out of the ball and following a blueprint laid out by the Steelers, who had success slowing down Daniels & Co. this past Sunday.

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Commanders vs Eagles live odds

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